https://chanceindex.comLive probabilities from prediction markets.https://chanceindex.com/odds/russia-nuclear-test-byhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/russia-nuclear-test-byTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:48:15 GMTLive probability that Russia conducts a nuclear test by Dec. 31, 2026: {{prob_main}}. Current odds, chart, and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026https://chanceindex.com/odds/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:47:05 GMTLive probability that no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 sits at {{prob_main}} — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/ai-bubble-burst-byhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/ai-bubble-burst-byTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:45:05 GMTLive probability that the AI bubble bursts by 2026 — currently {{prob_main}}. Chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:45:00 GMTLive prediction market probability that the U.S. invades Greenland by end of 2026 — currently {{prob_main}}. Odds, chart, and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/fed-decision-in-september-762https://chanceindex.com/odds/fed-decision-in-september-762Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:44:30 GMTLive prediction market probability of no change in Fed rates after the September 2026 FOMC meeting: {{prob_main}}. Odds, chart, and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:44:04 GMTLive probability that the U.S. invades Cuba in 2026 is {{prob_main}} — current odds, chart, and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/which-continent-will-win-the-world-cuphttps://chanceindex.com/odds/which-continent-will-win-the-world-cupTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:42:32 GMTLive probability that Europe wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup is {{prob_main}}. Current prediction market odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/lol-blg-ly-2026-07-05https://chanceindex.com/odds/lol-blg-ly-2026-07-05Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:42:20 GMTLive probability that both teams slay a dragon in Game 3 is {{prob_main}} — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/kxfeddecision-26julhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/kxfeddecision-26julTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:37:39 GMTLive probability {{prob_main}} that the Federal Reserve hikes rates by 0bps in July 2026 — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/world-cup-number-of-missed-penalties-20260610205749652https://chanceindex.com/odds/world-cup-number-of-missed-penalties-20260610205749652Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:36:40 GMTLive probability that 5+ penalties are missed at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-byhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-byTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:35:37 GMTLive probability that Israel confirms a ground operation in Iran by year-end 2026: currently {{prob_main}}.https://chanceindex.com/odds/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025https://chanceindex.com/odds/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:34:12 GMTLive probability that a NATO–Russia military clash occurs by December 31, 2026? — current odds {{prob_main}}, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/human-moon-landing-in-2026https://chanceindex.com/odds/human-moon-landing-in-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:34:05 GMTLive probability that a human-crewed mission lands on the moon is {{prob_main}} — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:33:21 GMTLive probability that Russia launches a military offensive against a NATO country by December 31, 2026, according to prediction markets. Current odds and resolution rules.https://chanceindex.com/odds/taylor-swift-pregnant-in-2025https://chanceindex.com/odds/taylor-swift-pregnant-in-2025Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:33:18 GMTLive prediction market probability that Taylor Swift announces a pregnancy before 2027: currently {{prob_main}}. See market trajectory and resolution details.https://chanceindex.com/odds/us-strike-on-cuba-byhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/us-strike-on-cuba-byTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:33:05 GMTLive probability that the US conducts a drone, missile, or air strike on Cuba by {{end_date}} — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31https://chanceindex.com/odds/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:32:42 GMTLive probability that a US-initiated strike on Colombia occurs by December 31 — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/largest-company-end-of-december-2026https://chanceindex.com/odds/largest-company-end-of-december-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:31:57 GMTLive probability that NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap at end of 2026: currently {{prob_main}}. Chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/fifwc-arg-che-2026-07-11-player-propshttps://chanceindex.com/odds/fifwc-arg-che-2026-07-11-player-propsTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:31:52 GMTLive probability for Granit Xhaka 1+ shots on target in Argentina vs. Switzerland: {{prob_main}} — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/jeffrey-epstein-foul-play-confirmed-in-2025https://chanceindex.com/odds/jeffrey-epstein-foul-play-confirmed-in-2025Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:31:44 GMTLive probability that Jeffrey Epstein foul play is confirmed by December 31, 2026 — current odds, chart, and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-byhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-byTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:30:49 GMTLive prediction market probability that Israel announces full withdrawal of ground forces from Lebanon by 2026 — current odds, chart, and resolution rules.https://chanceindex.com/odds/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-byhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-byTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:30:48 GMTLive probability of a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by the target date — current odds, chart, and resolution rules.https://chanceindex.com/odds/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30https://chanceindex.com/odds/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:30:15 GMTLive probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel is out as Cuba's leader — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-byhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-byTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:29:43 GMTLive probability that Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by the end of 2026 stands at {{prob_main}} — market chart, rules, and key factors.https://chanceindex.com/odds/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026https://chanceindex.com/odds/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:29:32 GMTLive probability that at least 2000 measles cases will occur in the U.S. in 2026 — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026https://chanceindex.com/odds/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:29:27 GMTLive prediction market probability that Spider-Man: Brand New Day will be the top grossing domestic movie of 2026. Current odds, chart, and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:28:00 GMTLive probability that the US will confirm aliens exist before {{end_date}} — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/iran-leader-end-of-2026https://chanceindex.com/odds/iran-leader-end-of-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:26:38 GMTLive probability that Mojtaba Khamenei will be Iran's head of state at end of 2026 — now at {{prob_main}}, with chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31https://chanceindex.com/odds/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:25:16 GMTLive probability that Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by August 31 — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/kxleavewalz-27jan01https://chanceindex.com/odds/kxleavewalz-27jan01Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:24:07 GMTLive probability that Tim Walz leaves the governorship of Minnesota before 2027: {{prob_main}}. 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See chart, context, and resolution rules.https://chanceindex.com/odds/macron-out-in-2025https://chanceindex.com/odds/macron-out-in-2025Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:21:12 GMTLive prediction market probability that Macron is out by July 31, 2026 — current odds at {{prob_main}}, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-metamask-launch-a-token-in-2025https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-metamask-launch-a-token-in-2025Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:20:13 GMTLive probability that MetaMask launches a token by December 31, 2025: {{prob_main}} — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/kxbrpres-26https://chanceindex.com/odds/kxbrpres-26Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:19:34 GMTLive probability that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, currently at {{prob_main}}.https://chanceindex.com/odds/epstein-client-list-released-in-2025-372https://chanceindex.com/odds/epstein-client-list-released-in-2025-372Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:19:11 GMTMarkets price a July 31 release of Epstein's client list at {{prob_main}}. Current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/next-prime-minister-of-ethiopiahttps://chanceindex.com/odds/next-prime-minister-of-ethiopiaTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:18:27 GMTLive probability that Abiy Ahmed remains Prime Minister after the 2026 election — current odds, chart, and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-byhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-byTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:17:50 GMTLive prediction market probability that Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire by December 31, 2026 — with earlier timeline chances and resolution rules.https://chanceindex.com/odds/fedhikehttps://chanceindex.com/odds/fedhikeTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:17:42 GMTLive probability that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by December 2027 — current odds ({{prob_main}}), chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927https://chanceindex.com/odds/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:17:39 GMTLive probability that Republicans hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterms: {{prob_main}}. Chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/openai-ipo-byhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/openai-ipo-byTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:16:44 GMTLive probability that OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2026 — current odds, chart, and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:16:10 GMTLive probability that Hamas agrees to disarm by December 31, 2025 — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july-299https://chanceindex.com/odds/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july-299Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:14:59 GMTMarkets give Anthropic a {{prob_main}} chance of having the best AI model at the end of July 2026, with current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027https://chanceindex.com/odds/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:14:25 GMTLive market probability that the United States will formally withdraw from NATO by 2027 — current odds, chart, and resolution rules.https://chanceindex.com/odds/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-122https://chanceindex.com/odds/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-122Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:14:06 GMTMarket probability that Andy Burnham becomes the next UK PM: {{prob_main}} — live odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/kxwcgoalleader-26https://chanceindex.com/odds/kxwcgoalleader-26Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:11:59 GMTLive probability that Kylian Mbappe wins the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot — current odds, chart and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-electionhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-electionTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:10:33 GMTLive prediction market probability that Democrats win the 2028 US presidency — {{prob_main}}. Current odds, chart, and context.https://chanceindex.com/odds/bachelorette-season-22-winnerhttps://chanceindex.com/odds/bachelorette-season-22-winnerTue, 14 Jul 2026 18:10:17 GMTLive probability that Doug Mason wins Bachelorette Season 22 — currently {{prob_main}}. Chart, resolution rules, and FAQ.