About ChanceIndex

ChanceIndex is a data-journalism project that answers a simple question for any major event:how likely is it? We take live prices from prediction markets and present them as clear probabilities, with the history, context and sourcing behind each number.

What we do

For every tracked market we show the current probability, how it has moved over time, and a plain-language explanation of what the number means — always attributed to the underlying market rather than to us. Where a question trades on more than one platform, we compare them.

What we are not

We are not a broker, a bookmaker, or a place to trade. We do not offer financial advice. Any link to a trading platform is clearly labelled as an affiliate link.

How it works

See our methodology for exactly how probabilities are calculated, which sources we use, and the limitations to keep in mind.