Geopolitics
Market-implied odds on international events, conflicts and diplomacy, updated continuously.
Markets by volume
Netanyahu out by...?48.5%$124.1MVenezuela leader end of 2026?84.4%$95.9MKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?8.5%$72.3MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15.5%$63.3MWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?3.8%$40.4MIran leader end of 2026?82.8%$39.0MPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?49.9%$34.2MUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?4.5%$29.2MIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?66.5%$27.0MWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?6.5%$25.3MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?0.1%$25.0MIran leadership change by...?25.5%$24.4MNobel Peace Prize Winner 20268.0%$23.6MUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?58.9%$23.5MPutin out as President of Russia by...?14.5%$22.2MWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?4.5%$21.8MIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?6.5%$17.8MUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?10.5%$16.9MWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?3.9%$14.2MXi Jinping out before 2027?4.5%$12.9MBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?17.5%$11.9MWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?3.6%$11.7MTrump out as President before 2027?6.5%$11.2MNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?60.5%$10.6MWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?7.0%$10.6MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?28.5%$10.0MIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?8.5%$8.4MWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?3.6%$7.8MUS military action against Cuba by...?14.5%$7.4MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?2.8%$7.1MMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?21.5%$7.0MNATO x Russia military clash by...?23.5%$6.4MWill US withdraw from NATO by...?2.5%$6.3MRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?49.5%$6.3MRussia nuclear test by...?7.0%$6.2MWill Russia invade a NATO country by...?7.0%$5.4MIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?15.5%$4.1MWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?11.5%$3.7MWill Hamas agree to disarm by...?20.5%$3.6MIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by...?9.0%$3.5MUS strike on Mexico by...?10.5%$3.5MWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?7.5%$3.3MChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?6.8%$3.3MWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?91.5%$3.2MZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?6.5%$3.1MWill Hezbollah disarm by...?7.5%$3.1MWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?11.5%$3.0MWill Russia capture Lyman by...?25.0%$3.0MCrude Oil all time high by...?12.5%$2.9MIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?29.0%$2.9MNicolás Maduro released from custody by...?7.0%$2.7MIran charges Hormuz fees by...?36.5%$2.7MUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?3.5%$2.6MUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?10.5%$2.6MUkraine election held by...?5.0%$2.5MWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?16.5%$2.3MWill Alberta join the US?2.1%$2.2MUS strike on Colombia by...?34.0%$2.2MIsrael and Syria normalize relations by...?11.0%$2.1MMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?16.5%$2.1M