Geopolitics
Market-implied odds on international events, conflicts and diplomacy, updated continuously.
Markets by volume
Netanyahu out by...?35.5%$123.5MVenezuela leader end of 2026?78.5%$93.6MNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)97.6%$65.2MKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?6.2%$63.1MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?19.5%$41.5MWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?3.6%$38.4MUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?11.5%$28.5MIran leader end of 2026?76.9%$26.9MWho will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?41.5%$26.6MNobel Peace Prize Winner 202610.1%$22.4MIsrael closes its airspace by...?29.5%$22.3MWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?9.5%$22.0MWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?6.5%$21.6MIran leadership change by...?30.5%$19.6MPutin out as President of Russia by...?19.0%$17.3MIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?14.5%$17.3MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?1.8%$16.5MWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?5.5%$14.2MIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?1.1%$12.1MWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?4.3%$11.6MXi Jinping out before 2027?4.9%$11.3MWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?6.5%$10.4MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?0.3%$10.4MUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?30.5%$10.0MTrump out as President before 2027?7.5%$9.9MIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?1.5%$9.9MWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?42.0%$7.9MWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?4.5%$7.6MIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?12.0%$7.4MUS military action against Cuba by...?29.5%$6.9MNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?50.0%$6.4MWill US withdraw from NATO by...?3.1%$6.3MRussia nuclear test by...?9.9%$6.1MBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?28.5%$5.8MMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?29.5%$5.7MRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?39.0%$5.5MWill Russia invade a NATO country by...?5.5%$5.2MIran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?38.0%$5.2MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?56.5%$5.1MIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?34.5%$4.1MIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by...?9.0%$3.5MUS strike on Mexico by...?12.0%$3.4MWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?13.5%$3.1MWill Hezbollah disarm by...?10.5%$3.0MNATO x Russia military clash by...?18.0%$3.0MWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?10.5%$2.9MChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?5.9%$2.9MWill Russia capture Lyman by...?60.5%$2.8MIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?27.1%$2.8MWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?86.5%$2.7MNicolás Maduro released from custody by...?10.5%$2.7MUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?4.0%$2.6MZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?10.5%$2.6MUkraine election held by...?9.0%$2.5MUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?18.5%$2.4MWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?10.0%$2.2MWill Alberta join the US?2.7%$2.2MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?0.1%$2.2MIsrael and Syria normalize relations by...?5.5%$2.1MUS strike on Colombia by...?15.5%$2.1M