Geopolitics
Market-implied odds on international events, conflicts and diplomacy, updated continuously.
Markets by volume
Netanyahu out by...?53.5%$124.3MVenezuela leader end of 2026?82.8%$96.0MKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?6.5%$73.0MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?14.5%$65.0MWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4.0%$41.1MIran leader end of 2026?85.2%$39.4MPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?58.6%$36.5MUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?4.5%$29.3MIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?65.5%$29.0MUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?55.9%$26.9MWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?6.5%$25.7MIran leadership change by...?29.5%$25.1MNobel Peace Prize Winner 20267.5%$23.8MPutin out as President of Russia by...?13.5%$23.2MWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?5.0%$21.9MIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?6.5%$17.9MUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?9.5%$17.3MWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?2.8%$14.2MXi Jinping out before 2027?3.9%$13.1MBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?16.5%$12.4MWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?3.1%$11.7MTrump out as President before 2027?5.5%$11.4MNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?55.5%$11.0MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?22.5%$10.6MWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?6.0%$10.6MIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?4.5%$8.4MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?1.7%$8.1MWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?2.3%$7.8MRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?53.5%$7.5MHow many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?86.4%$7.4MUS military action against Cuba by...?13.5%$7.4MMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?20.5%$7.1MNATO x Russia military clash by...?22.5%$6.7MWill US withdraw from NATO by...?1.6%$6.3MRussia nuclear test by...?5.8%$6.2MWill Russia invade a NATO country by...?6.5%$5.4MIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?16.5%$4.1MWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?11.5%$3.8MWill Hamas agree to disarm by...?21.5%$3.7MIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by...?6.5%$3.5MUS strike on Mexico by...?9.5%$3.5MCrude Oil all time high by...?10.5%$3.4MChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?7.1%$3.3MWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?91.5%$3.3MWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?6.5%$3.3MZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?7.5%$3.2MWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?10.5%$3.1MWill Hezbollah disarm by...?9.5%$3.1MWill Russia capture Lyman by...?14.5%$3.0MIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?22.5%$2.9MIran charges Hormuz fees by...?28.0%$2.8MUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?10.5%$2.7MNicolás Maduro released from custody by...?6.5%$2.7MUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?3.3%$2.6MUkraine election held by...?4.5%$2.5MWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?14.0%$2.3MWill Alberta join the US?2.4%$2.2MUS strike on Colombia by...?14.0%$2.2MMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?14.0%$2.2MIsrael and Syria normalize relations by...?9.0%$2.1M