Geopolitics
Market-implied odds on international events, conflicts and diplomacy, updated continuously.
Markets by volume
Netanyahu out by...?38.0%$124.6MVenezuela leader end of 2026?71.5%$98.4MKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?7.5%$76.2MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15.5%$74.4MPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?50.7%$47.1MWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2.1%$44.2MUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?57.5%$41.0MIran leader end of 2026?86.9%$40.2MIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?45.5%$36.0MUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?3.1%$29.6MPutin out as President of Russia by...?10.0%$29.4MIran leadership change by...?24.5%$27.5MWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?5.5%$27.3MWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?3.5%$22.2MUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?12.5%$20.0MIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?5.5%$18.1MBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?16.5%$17.2MUS-Iran ceasefire continues through...?52.5%$15.1MXi Jinping out before 2027?2.8%$15.1MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?11.5%$15.0MWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?3.0%$14.2MTrump out as President before 2027?4.0%$12.6MWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?2.7%$11.8MWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?2.8%$10.9MIran full airspace closure by...?33.5%$10.2MNATO x Russia military clash by...?22.5%$9.1MRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?49.0%$8.7MIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?34.5%$8.5MWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?2.2%$7.8MUS military action against Cuba by...?11.5%$7.6MHow many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?62.5%$7.6MMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?18.5%$7.4MWill US withdraw from NATO by...?1.4%$6.4MRussia nuclear test by...?4.5%$6.3MWill Russia invade a NATO country by...?5.5%$5.5MCrude Oil all time high by...?21.5%$5.0MWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?8.5%$4.3MIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?6.5%$4.1MWill Hamas agree to disarm by...?11.0%$3.8MWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?96.5%$3.8MWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?7.5%$3.6MZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?6.5%$3.6MIran charges Hormuz fees by...?16.5%$3.5MWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?9.5%$3.5MIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by...?5.1%$3.5MUS strike on Mexico by...?3.7%$3.5MChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?4.7%$3.5MWill Xi Jinping visit US by...?100.0%$3.2MWill Russia capture Lyman by...?6.5%$3.1MIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?31.5%$3.1MWill Hezbollah disarm by...?8.0%$3.1MIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?14.0%$2.9MUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?7.0%$2.9MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?0.8%$2.7MNicolás Maduro released from custody by...?4.5%$2.7MUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?1.5%$2.7MSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?100.0%$2.6MUkraine election held by...?3.5%$2.5MRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?9.5%$2.4MWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?10.5%$2.3M