Politics
Probabilities for elections, nominations, legislation and political events, priced by prediction markets in real time.
Markets by volume
Democratic Presidential Nominee 202819.8%$1.2BRepublican Presidential Nominee 202849.0%$673.6MPresidential Election Winner 202820.0%$658.7MNext Prime Minister of Ethiopia?96.4%$177.5MNetanyahu out by...?35.5%$123.5MBrazil Presidential Election61.5%$112.9MNext French Presidential Election31.1%$112.4MVenezuela leader end of 2026?78.5%$93.6MNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)97.5%$65.2MWill the US confirm that aliens exist by...?7.5%$62.7MFed Decision in July?91.5%$59.9MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?19.5%$41.5MCalifornia Governor Election Winner93.1%$40.3MWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?3.6%$38.4MWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?4.2%$34.9MUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?11.5%$28.4MIran leader end of 2026?76.9%$26.9MWho will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?41.6%$26.6MWhat will happen before GTA VI?49.6%$23.2MNobel Peace Prize Winner 202610.1%$22.4MIsrael closes its airspace by...?29.5%$22.3MWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?9.5%$22.0MIran leadership change by...?30.5%$19.6MPutin out as President of Russia by...?19.0%$17.3MIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?14.5%$17.3MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?2.1%$16.5MNext UK Prime Minister in 2026?99.6%$16.4MWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?54.5%$15.3MWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?5.5%$14.2MLos Angeles Mayoral Election65.5%$12.9MWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?4.3%$11.6MWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?6.5%$10.4MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?0.3%$10.4MTrump out as President before 2027?7.5%$9.9MBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms44.5%$8.6MWhich party will win the House in 2026?83.5%$8.4MWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?42.0%$7.9MWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?4.5%$7.6MWhat will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?29.8%$6.7MNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?50.5%$6.4MMaría Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?18.0%$6.3MWill US withdraw from NATO by...?3.1%$6.3MRussia nuclear test by...?9.9%$6.1MBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?28.5%$5.8MRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?39.0%$5.5MWill Russia invade a NATO country by...?5.5%$5.2MIran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?38.5%$5.2MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?56.5%$5.1MEpstein client list released by...?0.7%$4.4MBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place84.5%$4.1MBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?29.0%$3.6MIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by...?9.0%$3.5MUS strike on Mexico by...?12.0%$3.4MNext Prime Minister of Sweden80.0%$3.2MWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?55.5%$3.2MNext Prime Minister of Romania?38.3%$3.2MWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?13.5%$3.1MWill Hezbollah disarm by...?10.5%$3.0MBerlin State Election Winner35.5%$3.0MWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?48.0%$2.9M