Politics
Probabilities for elections, nominations, legislation and political events, priced by prediction markets in real time.
Markets by volume
Democratic Presidential Nominee 202816.6%$1.3BPresidential Election Winner 202821.1%$717.0MRepublican Presidential Nominee 202849.0%$712.6MNext French Presidential Election46.2%$152.3MNetanyahu out by...?38.0%$124.6MVenezuela leader end of 2026?71.5%$98.4MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15.5%$74.4MWill the US confirm that aliens exist by...?5.1%$74.0MPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?50.7%$47.1MWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2.1%$44.2MCalifornia Governor Election Winner95.9%$42.0MUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?57.5%$41.0MIran leader end of 2026?86.9%$40.2MWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?2.4%$35.7MUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?3.1%$29.6MPutin out as President of Russia by...?10.0%$29.4MIran leadership change by...?24.5%$27.5MWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?5.5%$27.3MBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms62.5%$24.4MClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?5.6%$24.1MWhich party will win the House in 2026?90.5%$18.2MIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?5.5%$18.1MBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?16.5%$17.2MLos Angeles Mayoral Election53.8%$15.4MUS-Iran ceasefire continues through...?52.5%$15.1MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?11.5%$15.0MWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?3.0%$14.2MTrump out as President before 2027?4.0%$12.6MWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?2.7%$11.8MWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?2.8%$10.9MRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?49.0%$8.7MWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?2.2%$7.8MHow many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?62.5%$7.6MWhat will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?65.8%$7.1MWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?64.5%$7.0MMaría Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?28.5%$6.7MWill US withdraw from NATO by...?1.4%$6.4MRussia nuclear test by...?4.5%$6.3MIndiana enacts data center moratorium by...?26.5%$6.0MWill Russia invade a NATO country by...?5.5%$5.5MNext Prime Minister of Romania?90.2%$5.4MWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?58.5%$4.3MWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?8.5%$4.3MTexas Senate Election Winner62.5%$4.0MBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?24.5%$3.9MWill Hamas agree to disarm by...?11.0%$3.8MWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?96.5%$3.8MWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?7.5%$3.6MZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?6.5%$3.6MWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?9.5%$3.5MIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by...?5.1%$3.5MUS strike on Mexico by...?3.7%$3.5MRepublican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?38.5%$3.2MWill Xi Jinping visit US by...?100.0%$3.2MWill Russia capture Lyman by...?6.5%$3.1MWill Hezbollah disarm by...?8.0%$3.1MIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?14.0%$2.9MFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?41.0%$2.9MUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?7.0%$2.9MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?0.8%$2.7M