Politics
Probabilities for elections, nominations, legislation and political events, priced by prediction markets in real time.
Markets by volume
Democratic Presidential Nominee 202820.0%$1.3BPresidential Election Winner 202825.4%$696.1MRepublican Presidential Nominee 202849.1%$693.3MBrazil Presidential Election55.5%$140.0MNetanyahu out by...?48.5%$124.1MNext French Presidential Election33.4%$123.8MVenezuela leader end of 2026?84.4%$95.9MFed Decision in September?52.5%$67.8MWill the US confirm that aliens exist by...?3.9%$66.1MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15.5%$63.3MCalifornia Governor Election Winner95.1%$40.9MWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?3.8%$40.4MIran leader end of 2026?82.8%$39.0MWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?3.8%$35.4MPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?49.9%$34.2MUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?4.5%$29.2MWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?6.5%$25.3MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?0.1%$25.0MIran leadership change by...?25.5%$24.4MNobel Peace Prize Winner 20268.0%$23.6MUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?58.9%$23.5MWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?71.5%$23.4MPutin out as President of Russia by...?14.5%$22.2MIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?6.5%$17.8MWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?3.9%$14.2MLos Angeles Mayoral Election64.5%$13.5MBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?17.5%$11.9MWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?3.6%$11.7MClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?12.5%$11.5MTrump out as President before 2027?6.5%$11.2MBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms50.5%$10.8MNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?60.5%$10.6MWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?7.0%$10.6MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?28.5%$10.0MWhich party will win the House in 2026?89.5%$9.9MWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?3.6%$7.8MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?2.8%$7.1MWhat will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?38.0%$6.8MMaría Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?26.5%$6.4MWill US withdraw from NATO by...?2.5%$6.3MRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?49.5%$6.3MRussia nuclear test by...?7.0%$6.2MBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place85.5%$5.7MWill Russia invade a NATO country by...?7.0%$5.4MNext Prime Minister of Sweden86.5%$4.3MWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?50.5%$4.0MWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?11.5%$3.7MBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?28.5%$3.7MWill Hamas agree to disarm by...?20.5%$3.6MWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?35.5%$3.6MIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by...?9.0%$3.5MUS strike on Mexico by...?10.5%$3.5MNext Prime Minister of Romania?46.3%$3.4MBerlin State Election Winner61.5%$3.4MRussia Parliamentary Election Winner98.5%$3.4MWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?7.5%$3.3MWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?91.5%$3.2MZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?6.5%$3.1MWill Hezbollah disarm by...?7.5%$3.1MWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?11.5%$3.0M