Politics
Probabilities for elections, nominations, legislation and political events, priced by prediction markets in real time.
Markets by volume
Democratic Presidential Nominee 202818.6%$1.3BPresidential Election Winner 202824.1%$704.0MRepublican Presidential Nominee 202850.2%$701.2MBrazil Presidential Election52.5%$145.6MNext French Presidential Election35.6%$128.9MNetanyahu out by...?52.5%$124.3MFed Decision in September?53.5%$104.9MVenezuela leader end of 2026?82.8%$96.0MWill the US confirm that aliens exist by...?3.9%$66.7MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?14.5%$65.0MWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?3.9%$41.1MCalifornia Governor Election Winner94.7%$40.9MIran leader end of 2026?85.2%$39.4MPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?58.6%$36.5MWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?3.4%$35.4MUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?4.5%$29.3MUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?55.9%$26.9MWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?73.5%$26.0MWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?6.5%$25.7MIran leadership change by...?29.5%$25.1MNobel Peace Prize Winner 20267.5%$23.8MPutin out as President of Russia by...?13.5%$23.2MIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?6.5%$17.9MClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?14.5%$14.5MWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?2.9%$14.2MLos Angeles Mayoral Election64.5%$13.5MBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?16.5%$12.4MWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?3.1%$11.7MTrump out as President before 2027?5.5%$11.4MBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms50.5%$11.3MNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?55.5%$11.0MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?22.5%$10.6MWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?6.0%$10.6MWhich party will win the House in 2026?86.5%$10.3MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?1.8%$8.1MWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?2.3%$7.8MRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?53.5%$7.5MHow many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?86.4%$7.4MWhat will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?41.0%$6.8MBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place82.0%$6.7MMaría Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?34.5%$6.4MWill US withdraw from NATO by...?1.6%$6.3MRussia nuclear test by...?5.8%$6.2MWill Russia invade a NATO country by...?6.5%$5.4MNext Prime Minister of Sweden78.5%$5.0MWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?52.5%$4.2MWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?11.5%$3.8MWill Hamas agree to disarm by...?21.5%$3.7MBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?31.5%$3.7MRussia Parliamentary Election Winner99.1%$3.6MWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?39.5%$3.6MNext Prime Minister of Romania?24.9%$3.6MBerlin State Election Winner46.5%$3.5MIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by...?6.5%$3.5MUS strike on Mexico by...?9.5%$3.5MWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?91.5%$3.3MWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?6.5%$3.3MZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?7.5%$3.2MWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?10.5%$3.1MWill Hezbollah disarm by...?9.5%$3.1M