Economy
Market-implied probabilities for recessions, rate decisions and macro outcomes, updated as expectations shift.
Markets by volume
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?96.9%$54.4MFed Decision in October?86.5%$44.8MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?11.5%$15.0MLargest Company end of December 2026?70.0%$8.6MFed rate hike by...?100.0%$3.9MFed Decision in December?76.5%$3.8MFed rate cut by...?50.5%$3.8MLargest Company end of August?50.0%$2.9MLargest Company end of September?50.0%$2.4MUS recession by end of 2026?7.0%$2.3MWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?79.8%$1.9MHow high will inflation get in 2026?14.5%$1.5MWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?2.5%$1.1MChina Annual GDP Growth 202695.5%$934.6KAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?77.5%$860.4KWhich CEOs will be out before 2027?100.0%$718.0KECB Interest Rates: October 202696.8%$621.1KHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?5.0%$564.6KFed Decision in January?62.0%$558.3K2nd Largest Company end of August?50.0%$540.9KLargest Company end of October 2026?50.0%$454.4KUS x Cuba economic deal by...?12.5%$444.5KHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?20.5%$397.9K3rd Largest Company end of August?50.0%$373.5KBank of England decision in November?94.0%$314.9KFed emergency rate cut before 2027?4.0%$245.4KBank of Japan Decision in October?96.7%$240.7KHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?58.0%$238.9K3rd Largest Company end of September?50.0%$236.0KWhich companies will the US take a stake in?37.0%$216.3KBank of Korea decision in July?100.0%$195.6KBank of Canada Decision in October?82.5%$183.2K2nd Largest Company end of September?50.0%$168.1KBrazil Annual Inflation 202662.5%$167.3KReserve Bank of Australia Decision in November84.5%$146.0KU.K. Annual Inflation 202661.1%$140.0KHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?67.8%$125.7KNYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?7.5%$122.3KUSD x Iranian rials End of December?25.5%$120.0KEurozone Annual Inflation 202681.3%$119.4KChina Annual Inflation 202647.5%$117.0KHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?27.0%$112.3KUK Annual GDP Growth 202689.1%$111.9KHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?38.5%$111.0KUS economic state at the end of 2026?72.5%$104.5KIndia Annual Inflation 202697.9%$102.8KBank of Israel Decision in October?90.6%$98.9KReserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?64.5%$96.9KWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?3.7%$94.8KBank of Russia decision in October?90.0%$94.8KSouth Africa Annual Inflation 202684.4%$93.5KWill Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?6.0%$92.1KGDP growth in 202650.5%$88.5KMexico Annual Inflation 202660.8%$84.9KWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?3.4%$83.4KArgentina Annual Inflation 202666.5%$82.4K3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?50.0%$78.8K2026 World GDP Growth30.0%$76.5K3rd Largest Company end of October?50.0%$76.5KJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 202689.0%$76.3K