Economy
Market-implied probabilities for recessions, rate decisions and macro outcomes, updated as expectations shift.
Markets by volume
Fed Decision in September?52.5%$67.8MHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?87.9%$50.2MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?28.5%$10.0MFed rate hike in 2026?65.5%$8.2MLargest Company end of December 2026?76.0%$6.5MFed rate cut by...?11.5%$3.3MLargest Company end of August?50.0%$2.9MFed rate hike by...?60.5%$2.6MWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?26.2%$1.8MUS recession by end of 2026?7.5%$1.7MHow high will inflation get in 2026?12.5%$1.4MWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?2.1%$1.1MFed Decision in October?70.5%$962.0KLargest Company end of September?50.0%$901.6KChina Annual GDP Growth 202688.5%$896.8KWhich CEOs will be out before 2027?8.5%$711.6K2nd Largest Company end of August?50.0%$519.0KHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?10.7%$484.3KUS x Cuba economic deal by...?20.5%$434.1KFed Decision in December?48.5%$434.0KBank of Japan Decision in September?88.0%$373.0K3rd Largest Company end of August?50.0%$365.0KECB Interest Rates: September 202698.4%$277.7KHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?100.0%$225.9KBank of England decision in September?96.1%$216.9KBank of Korea decision in July?100.0%$195.6KWhich companies will the US take a stake in?62.5%$176.4KUSD x Iranian rials End of August?51.3%$170.7KFed emergency rate cut before 2027?7.5%$164.1K2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?0.0%$158.5KBank of Brazil decision in September?90.6%$125.7KBank of Israel decision in August?85.5%$123.2KBank of Russia decision in September?61.0%$115.4KEurozone Annual Inflation 202666.2%$109.2KNYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?14.5%$100.4KBrazil Annual Inflation 202646.7%$100.2K3rd Largest Company end of September?50.0%$94.1KElon Musk Net Worth on August 31?95.5%$91.6KWhat will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?89.0%$89.5KWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?5.3%$87.3KWhat will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?35.0%$83.7KIndia Annual Inflation 202690.0%$83.5KWill Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?9.5%$83.0KU.K. Annual Inflation 202623.1%$82.1KUK Annual GDP Growth 202677.0%$81.6KBank of Canada Decision in September?99.8%$78.6KBank of Israel Decision in September?84.5%$75.8KWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?4.5%$74.3KChina Annual Inflation 202659.5%$74.0KUS economic state at the end of 2026?61.5%$74.0KMexico Annual Inflation 202635.3%$66.0K2nd Largest Company end of September?50.0%$65.8KWhat will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?42.5%$64.1KBrazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?77.4%$63.1KWhat will the median home value in the US be on September 30?57.0%$61.1KGDP growth in 202635.5%$58.6KWhat will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?47.1%$57.9KFed Decision in January?60.5%$56.3KTariff increase on Canada in effect by...?10.0%$55.7KSEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?29.0%$51.8K