Economy
Market-implied probabilities for recessions, rate decisions and macro outcomes, updated as expectations shift.
Markets by volume
Fed Decision in July?91.5%$59.9MHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?80.5%$42.4MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?2.1%$16.5MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?56.5%$5.1MLargest Company end of December 2026?72.5%$4.2MFed rate hike in 2026?52.5%$4.1MFed Decision in September?56.5%$2.8MFed rate cut by...?20.5%$2.8MLargest Company end of July?50.0%$2.4MWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?21.9%$1.7MUS recession by end of 2026?10.5%$1.7MHow high will inflation get in 2026?22.5%$1.3MFed rate hike by...?50.5%$1.2MWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?2.6%$1.0MJune Inflation US - Annual100.0%$870.6KChina Annual GDP Growth 202676.5%$756.8KWhich CEOs will be out before 2027?14.2%$701.6KHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?14.8%$468.0KUS x Cuba economic deal by...?43.0%$396.3KECB Interest Rates: July 202697.6%$341.4KFed Decision in October?58.5%$229.6KHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?26.6%$220.2KBank of Japan Decision in July?98.5%$202.9K2nd Largest Company end of July?50.0%$200.7KChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?62.5%$195.4KBank of Korea decision in July?94.7%$155.5KBank of Russia decision in July?59.0%$155.5K2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?2.9%$152.8KWhich companies will the US take a stake in?65.8%$146.9KBank of Brazil decision in August?79.5%$137.7KFed emergency rate cut before 2027?7.0%$120.7KNYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?14.5%$82.2KBrazil Annual Inflation 202635.8%$75.2KECB Interest Rates: September 202665.0%$69.6KIndia Annual Inflation 202628.5%$65.3K3rd Largest Company end of July?50.0%$63.6KWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?3.6%$61.8KChina Annual Inflation 202641.0%$54.4KWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?11.5%$54.2KBank of England decision in July?96.8%$53.8KJune Inflation US - Monthly100.0%$52.3KWill Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?19.0%$52.0KSEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?18.0%$51.5KBank of Japan Decision in September?89.5%$48.4KUK Annual GDP Growth 202629.5%$47.5KGDP growth in 202631.5%$47.3KMexico Annual Inflation 202635.0%$45.1KCore CPI YoY - June 2026100.0%$45.0KTariff increase on Canada in effect by...?28.0%$44.3KBank of England rate hike in 2026?44.5%$44.1KTrump signs housing bill by end of July?0.6%$43.7KBank of England decision in September?70.5%$42.0KBank of Mexico Decision in August?95.5%$41.1KWill Argentina dollarize by...?3.5%$38.5KSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?68.8%$36.3KUS economic state at the end of 2026?44.5%$35.8KCore CPI MoM - July 202657.5%$35.6KElon Musk Net Worth on July 31?40.3%$34.4KPrice of Dozen Eggs in June?100.0%$31.7KOPEC dissolves in 2026?6.5%$31.0K