Economy
Market-implied probabilities for recessions, rate decisions and macro outcomes, updated as expectations shift.
Markets by volume
Fed Decision in September?53.5%$104.9MHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?93.0%$51.6MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?22.5%$10.6MFed rate hike in 2026?70.5%$8.8MLargest Company end of December 2026?78.5%$6.9MFed rate cut by...?6.5%$3.4MLargest Company end of August?50.0%$2.9MFed rate hike by...?64.5%$2.9MWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?25.2%$1.8MUS recession by end of 2026?7.5%$1.7MLargest Company end of September?50.0%$1.5MHow high will inflation get in 2026?10.5%$1.4MFed Decision in October?67.5%$1.4MWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?2.1%$1.1MChina Annual GDP Growth 202689.5%$897.9KWhich CEOs will be out before 2027?100.0%$713.5KBank of Japan Decision in September?97.7%$688.8KFed Decision in December?48.5%$564.7K2nd Largest Company end of August?50.0%$540.9KHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?9.8%$500.4KECB Interest Rates: September 202699.6%$498.2KUS x Cuba economic deal by...?11.0%$434.6K3rd Largest Company end of August?50.0%$373.5KBank of Russia decision in September?70.0%$319.6KBank of England decision in September?97.3%$251.8KHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?8.3%$246.9KFed emergency rate cut before 2027?5.1%$207.9KBank of Korea decision in July?100.0%$195.6KWhich companies will the US take a stake in?33.0%$183.3K3rd Largest Company end of September?50.0%$157.2KBank of Brazil decision in September?97.2%$135.4KEurozone Annual Inflation 202681.3%$112.4KBrazil Annual Inflation 202643.0%$106.7KNYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?13.0%$106.0KWhat will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?96.6%$95.4KWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?5.4%$90.8KWhat will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?44.5%$87.0KU.K. Annual Inflation 202627.4%$86.6K2nd Largest Company end of September?50.0%$85.4KIndia Annual Inflation 202690.5%$83.7KWill Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?8.5%$83.7KUK Annual GDP Growth 202685.2%$82.8KAugust Inflation US - Annual45.5%$82.1KChina Annual Inflation 202652.5%$81.7KWhat will the median home value in the US be on September 30?49.4%$81.0KUS economic state at the end of 2026?56.0%$81.0KBank of Japan Decision in October?82.0%$76.3KWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?3.5%$75.3KWhat will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?58.5%$69.9KWhat will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?47.3%$69.5KFed Decision in January?60.5%$68.1KMexico Annual Inflation 202633.0%$66.8KWhat will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?30.0%$62.2KWhat will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?28.5%$62.0KReserve Bank of Australia Decision in September66.0%$61.5KEurozone GDP growth in Q3 202657.5%$60.7KGDP growth in 202646.5%$60.4KECB Interest Rates: October 202690.5%$57.3KTariff increase on Canada in effect by...?14.5%$56.2KBank of Canada Decision in October?88.6%$55.6K