Movers
Largest probability moves · updated 06:10 PM
Last 24 hours
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?8.8% 94.3%+85.5
- Will "Gus" - A Mounted Tyrannosaurus Rex Skeleton sell for at least $45m at auction?27.5% 99.0%+71.5
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?31.0% 96.4%+65.4
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?31.0% 95.7%+64.7
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?68.5% 16.5%-52.0
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?23.5% 71.5%+48.0
- Will Trey Hendrickson be traded?2.1% 46.9%+44.9
- Will Bank of America say "Synergy" during earnings call?3.5% 47.5%+44.0
- US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?50.0% 6.7%-43.4
- Will Yair Rodriguez become UFC champion in 2026?49.0% 6.0%-43.0
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?52.5% 92.0%+39.4
- Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?53.0% 14.5%-38.5
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?50.5% 89.0%+38.5
- Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?63.0% 26.0%-37.0
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by July 31, 2026?13.0% 47.0%+34.0
- Will Ben Rice hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?48.2% 14.4%-33.8
- Will Ben Rice hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?37.9% 4.4%-33.5
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?65.1% 31.9%-33.1
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027?46.4% 14.2%-32.1
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by July 31, 2026?78.5% 47.5%-31.0
- Will George Pickens play for Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026-27?39.0% 9.5%-29.5
- United Airlines Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 83%-84%?3.1% 32.6%+29.5
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?61.0% 31.5%-29.5
- Will Paddy Pimblett fight Charles Oliveira next?46.9% 18.1%-28.7
- Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season?14.0% 42.5%+28.5
Last 7 days
- Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?3.5% 98.3%+94.8
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?3.0% 94.3%+91.2
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?21.0% 97.7%+76.7
- Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by July 31, 2026?33.5% 97.7%+64.2
- Will Natural Gas hit $3.40 in July?72.5% 8.5%-64.0
- Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?6.6% 70.3%+63.8
- Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?33.0% 94.7%+61.7
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?11.0% 71.5%+60.5
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026?77.5% 17.5%-60.0
- Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?35.0% 93.3%+58.4
- Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?43.5% 98.1%+54.6
- Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?29.5% 80.5%+51.0
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than -0.5%?55.0% 4.9%-50.2
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?70.5% 20.5%-50.0
- Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?50.0% 98.0%+48.1
- Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?64.5% 17.0%-47.5
- Will Logan McNaney win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?49.5% 3.9%-45.6
- Will Trey Hendrickson be traded?1.8% 46.9%+45.1
- Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?71.0% 26.0%-45.0
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?49.0% 93.5%+44.5
- Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?57.0% 13.5%-43.5
- Netflix Q2 operating margin 32%-34%?24.5% 67.5%+43.0
- Over $2.5B crypto hack value in 2026?51.0% 9.0%-42.0
- Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?47.0% 88.5%+41.5
- Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?52.0% 93.5%+41.5