Jul 29, 2026
Resolved: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting — YES. A week before, markets priced it at 76%.
Fed Decision in July?: Result
Markets price the chance of no change at {{prob_main}}, leaving the federal funds rate untouched after the FOMC’s July meeting — a scenario {{band_main}}.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Resolved · markets gave 100.0% a week prior
Updated
Accuracy
A week before it resolved, prediction markets priced this outcome at 77.8%.
Context
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 80.2% to 73.9% — a 6.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 73.8% — a 6.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 82.2% to 78.7% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 74.9% to 81.4% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 85.5% to 77.8% — a 7.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 87.8% to 75.0% — a 12.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 92.3% to 81.3% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 92.5% to 96.3% — a 3.7-point move over the past day.
The contract currently gives a {{prob_main}} chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged.
[[opt]]It has traded in a range from {{period_low}} to {{period_high}} over the period.[[/opt]] [[opt]]Over the past day the probability shifted by {{delta_24h}}, while the weekly move comes to {{delta_7d}}.[[/opt]]
This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate announced after the FOMC’s July 28–29, 2026 meeting. Any change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points; a move smaller than 25 bps would count as a 25 bp change. The resolution source is the FOMC statement, as published on the Federal Reserve’s website. If no statement is issued by the end of the subsequent scheduled meeting, the market settles at 'No change'.
The probability will converge as the meeting date approaches. [[opt]]The contract is set to settle around {{end_date}},[[/opt]] but could resolve earlier once the statement is released. Any new information that shifts expectations ahead of the announcement — particularly around the path of rates — may alter the odds.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice