Sep 16, 2026
Resolved: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting — NO. A week before, markets priced it at 47%.
Fed Decision in September?: Result
Markets price the chance that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at its September 2026 meeting at {{prob_main}}, making it {{band_main}}. A 25-basis-point increase is {{band_outcome:2}}, and the remaining scenarios are long shots.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Resolved · markets gave 100.0% a week prior
Updated
Accuracy
A week before it resolved, prediction markets priced this outcome at 54.0%.
Context
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 88.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 81.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 61.5% to 78.5% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 53.5% to 61.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 53.5% to 61.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 40.0% to 50.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 52.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 47.5% to 58.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 49.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
The probability of no change currently sits at {{prob_main}}[[opt]], having traded between {{period_low}} and {{period_high}} over the observed period[[/opt]].[[opt]] It edged {{delta_24h}} over the last day[[/opt]][[opt]] and {{delta_7d}} over the past week[[/opt]].
The market settles based on the change in the upper bound of the federal funds rate following the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 15–16, 2026. Any adjustment that doesn’t fall neatly into a 25-basis-point bucket is rounded up to the nearest 25 bps; a 12.5 bps move would therefore count as a 25 bps change. If the Fed issues its post-meeting statement, the market resolves to the appropriate bracket as soon as the statement is published. Should no statement appear by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the contract defaults to ‘No change’. The official FOMC statement and the Fed’s monetary policy website serve as resolution sources.
For the probability to shift, markets need to reassess the likelihood of a rate move before the September 15–16 FOMC gathering[[opt]], with the market’s final resolution locked by {{end_date}}[[/opt]]. The event hinges on the FOMC statement: its release triggers settlement. Until then, trading will reflect any data or commentary that could influence the committee’s decision.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice