Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?: Result

Prediction markets price Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 at 100.0%.

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?Resolved · markets gave 100.0% a week prior

Updated

98%99%99%100%Jul 16Aug 2Aug 19Sep 4Sep 21

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 6 tracked outcomes and $112.6M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026, is priced at 100.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice