Jul 20, 2026
Resolved: Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — NO. A week before, markets priced it at 18%.
World Cup Winner : Result
The prediction market on the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner settled with Spain as the prevailing outcome. Markets priced Spain at a {{band_main}} {{prob_main}} at close.
SpainResolved · markets gave 100.0% a week prior
Updated
Accuracy
A week before it resolved, prediction markets priced this outcome at 20.4%.
Context
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 59.1% to 61.6% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Spain’s contract settled at {{prob_main}}, reaching a near-certain level. [[opt]]Over the trading period, the price ranged from {{period_low}} to {{period_high}}.[[/opt]] [[opt]]A week before resolution, the market had priced the same outcome at {{prob_7d_before}}.[[/opt]]
The market resolved according to the national team that won the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Resolution relied on official FIFA information or a consensus of credible reporting. Contracts for teams that were eliminated resolved to ‘No’ as soon as they could no longer win. Had the tournament been permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, the market would have resolved to ‘Other’. [[opt]]The market settled on {{end_date}}.[[/opt]] [[opt]]Total trading volume was {{volume}}.[[/opt]]
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice