Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 21.5% to 38.5% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Bitcoin trades near $78,000 as memecoins, small caps lead a broad crypto retreat — CoinDesk
Altcoin Market Cap Dip to $150B Before 2027: Odds
Prediction markets currently price the likelihood at 23.0% that CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS prints a 1-minute candle low at or below the threshold before the deadline.
23.0%+1.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $275.7K
The market prices a substantial minority view that the threshold will be breached, while the alternative outcome trades as a long shot.
Context
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 22.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 22.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 28.0% to 18.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 42.0% to 28.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 32.5% to 42.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 45.0% to 32.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 29.0% to 45.0% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 45.0% to 30.0% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
It has ranged between 17.0% and 70.5% in recent trading. The market resolves solely on whether any 1-minute candle for TradingView’s CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS index, within the observation window starting in early November 2025 and ending in late 2026, registers a Low equal to or below the price stated in the event title. No other price sources, indices, or exchanges affect resolution. Formal conditions that shape the probability include the fixed observation period and the reliance on TradingView data. As the window progresses without a qualifying candle low, the chance of a breach typically adjusts, reflecting the shrinking time left for the condition to be met.
FAQ
What index is used to resolve this market?
The market uses the CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS index on TradingView. Only the Low price of 1-minute candles from that chart is considered.
How is a “dip” determined?
A dip is recorded if any 1-minute candle within the observation window has a Low at or below the threshold specified in the event title. The candle does not need to close at that level.
Does data from other sources matter?
No. Prices from other indices, exchanges, or data providers are ignored. The resolution source is exclusively the TradingView chart.
What is the observation period?
The window begins in early November 2025 and continues through the end of December 2026. Only candles within this timeframe count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice