Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 17.5% to 6.7% — a 10.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: To ensure permanent economic innovation, we must pass the Clarity Act now — CoinDesk
Clarity Act Signed into Law in 2026? Odds
The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 stand at 5.6%, according to prediction markets. This reflects a unlikely view, with a resolution deadline of Jan 1, 2027.
5.6%-0.3 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $24.1M
The bill’s enactment is considered a unlikely prospect, with the “No” outcome commanding the market’s highest probability.
Context
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 27.5% to 18.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: To ensure permanent economic innovation, we must pass the Clarity Act now — CoinDesk
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 18.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Crypto's Clarity Act is a Schrödinger's cat in life-death limbo as U.S. Senate returns — CoinDesk
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 26.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Crypto's Clarity Act is a Schrödinger's cat in life-death limbo as U.S. Senate returns — CoinDesk
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 21.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 27.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: New Clarity Act text tweaks DeFi, credit union provisions, but road ahead for bill remains murky — CoinDesk
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 18.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 17.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 23.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Strengthen the Clarity Act — CoinDesk
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has oscillated in a modest range and now stands at 5.6%. The 24-hour change is -0.3 pts. The market’s resolution is straightforward: it will settle as “Yes” if H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, passes both the House and the Senate and receives the president’s signature by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Any other outcome—failure to pass, a veto without override, or inaction—resolves to “No.” The official legislative tracker at Congress.gov serves as the primary source, though supplementary credible reporting may be considered. The final resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027, meaning any legislative action before that date could shift the probability. This includes committee markups, floor votes, or conference proceedings. Additionally, any White House statements or signing ceremonies would directly affect the resolution, with Congress.gov providing the definitive record.
FAQ
What exactly does this market predict?
It measures the likelihood that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by Congress and signed into law by the end of 2026.
How is the outcome decided?
The market resolves to “Yes” only if the bill is enacted by the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” Congress.gov is the primary resolution source.
What happens if the President vetoes the bill?
A veto means the bill does not become law unless Congress overrides it. Without a successful override, the market would resolve to “No.”
When is the final settlement date?
The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Any legislative action after that time does not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice