Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 18.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Clarity Act Signed into Law in 2026? Odds
The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 stand at 12.5%, according to prediction markets. This reflects a unlikely view, with a resolution deadline of Jan 1, 2027.
12.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $11.5M
The bill’s enactment is considered a unlikely prospect, with the “No” outcome commanding the market’s highest probability.
Context
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 17.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 23.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Strengthen the Clarity Act — CoinDesk
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 16.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 21.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 23.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: A part of FTX survived, and it’s the case for the CLARITY Act — CoinDesk
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 16.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 26.0% to 14.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has oscillated in a modest range from 12.5% to 33.0% and now stands at 12.5%. The 24-hour change is -1.0 pts. The market’s resolution is straightforward: it will settle as “Yes” if H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, passes both the House and the Senate and receives the president’s signature by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Any other outcome—failure to pass, a veto without override, or inaction—resolves to “No.” The official legislative tracker at Congress.gov serves as the primary source, though supplementary credible reporting may be considered. The final resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027, meaning any legislative action before that date could shift the probability. This includes committee markups, floor votes, or conference proceedings. Additionally, any White House statements or signing ceremonies would directly affect the resolution, with Congress.gov providing the definitive record.
FAQ
What exactly does this market predict?
It measures the likelihood that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by Congress and signed into law by the end of 2026.
How is the outcome decided?
The market resolves to “Yes” only if the bill is enacted by the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” Congress.gov is the primary resolution source.
What happens if the President vetoes the bill?
A veto means the bill does not become law unless Congress overrides it. Without a successful override, the market would resolve to “No.”
When is the final settlement date?
The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Any legislative action after that time does not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice