Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?: Odds & Probability
The prediction market for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R.3633) currently implies a 37.5% likelihood the bill will pass Congress and be signed into law before the end of 2026.
Updated · Volume $1.7M
The market currently places a 37.5% probability on enactment, leaving a 62.5% chance the bill fails to become law by the deadline.
Context
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, also known as H.R.3633, would create a regulatory framework for digital asset markets in the U.S. The prediction market tied to this bill asks a simple yes-or-no question: will it be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law on or before December 31, 2026? As of the latest data, the market assigns a 37.5% probability to a Yes answer, with the No contract priced at an implied 62.5%. More than $1.66 million has been traded on this contract, representing a meaningful pool of capital. The market’s resolution source is official information from the U.S. government—primarily Congress.gov—supplemented by credible reporting. This design reduces the chance of a disputed outcome. The December 31st cutoff gives the clock a little under two years from today, assuming the market launched in early 2025. During that window, the bill must advance through committee review, floor votes in both the House and Senate, and finally a presidential signature. Many bills never make it that far. The 37.5% figure reflects how likely traders think it is to survive each stage in time. It does not comment on the bill’s merits or the political context; it simply aggregates money-backed opinions. Because the market is active, the probability can swing with real-world events. A successful committee markup, for example, might push the Yes price higher, while a stalled hearing could send it lower. Participants incorporate news, analysis, and inside knowledge into their trades, so the price reflects an ongoing synthesis of available information. The current reading is one point along a changing curve, offering a real-time gauge of expectations among people willing to bet on the outcome.
FAQ
What is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025?
H.R.3633 is a proposed law that would regulate digital asset markets in the United States. For the market to resolve to Yes, it must pass both chambers of Congress and receive presidential approval by December 31, 2026.
What does a 37.5% probability mean in this context?
It means traders currently see a 37.5% chance of the bill becoming law by the cutoff date. The remaining 62.5% reflects a consensus that the bill will not be enacted in time, for reasons the market itself does not specify.
How will the market determine the outcome?
Resolution relies on official government records, primarily Congress.gov. If the bill is passed and signed into law by the deadline, the market resolves as Yes. Otherwise, it resolves as No.
Why is the volume over $1.66 million?
The volume indicates the total value of trades placed on this market. A higher volume generally signals greater participation and liquidity, but it does not predict the outcome.
Could the probability change?
Yes. Markets update in real time as new information—such as committee hearings or floor votes—becomes available. The current 37.5% is a snapshot of sentiment at this moment.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice