Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 19.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Bitcoin New All-Time High by 2026: Market Probability
The odds of Bitcoin touching the six-figure mark by December 31, 2026, sit at 18.0% — unlikely.
18.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027?
Updated · Volume $27.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027? | 18.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30, 2027? | 16.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2027? | 13.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2027? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Only the 2026 timeline commands any measurable probability, and even that sits at a long shot; the other specific resolution dates are treated as highly improbable by traders.
Context
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 29.0% to 18.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 14.5% to 28.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 48.5% — a 32.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 19.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 14.0% to 27.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 20.0% to 50.0% — a 30.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 9.0% to 28.0% — a 19.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 31.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 32.0% — a 16.5-point move over the past day.
The probability now reads 18.0%. Over the tracked period, it has moved between 14.0% and 68.5%. The latest 24-hour change is 0.0 pts. Resolution is clean: the market settles as Yes if Bitcoin's price touches or exceeds the threshold at any point before the expiry. The settlement date is Jan 1, 2027; any later action has no bearing. The price feed is specified in the market's terms and typically comes from a widely accepted cryptocurrency exchange or index. Even a brief intraday spike counts. As the clock ticks down toward Jan 1, 2027, the odds become increasingly sensitive to large daily moves, since the price must cover more ground in less time. Absent such a catalyst, the number grinds lower. Only sustained trading near the target—or better, a clean break above it—would produce a durable jump. Macro developments or regulatory news can shift sentiment, but without follow-through in spot price, the effect tends to fade.
FAQ
What triggers a Yes resolution?
Bitcoin must trade at or above the designated price threshold at any moment before the market's expiry. Intraday wicks count.
How is the reference price determined?
The market's rules name a specific data source, usually a prominent exchange or index that provides a BTC/USD spot rate. This ensures a single, objective settlement value.
What happens if the price crosses the level after the deadline?
Only price action up to the settlement date is considered. Any breach after that is irrelevant to the outcome.
Can the probability change before the expiry?
Yes, it updates continuously as traders buy and sell contracts. New information, price moves, and the passage of time all influence the odds.
Are there other outcomes for later dates?
Yes, the event includes additional timeframes, but they carry such slim probabilities that traders ignore them.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice