Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or at 40.9%.
40.9%0.0 pts 24h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Updated · Volume $20.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 40.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 26.1% | -0.8 |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 11.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 11.2% | -0.4 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 3.8% | -0.2 |
| Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1.8% | +1.0 |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.9% | -0.2 |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Bukayo Saka win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Enzo Fernandez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Rodrygo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BO] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AP] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AK] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BW] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AL] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BN] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AH] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AC] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AM] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BP] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AU] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AR] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BH] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BA] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder X] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AI] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AD] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BD] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BM] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AN] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BY] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AG] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AJ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder W] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BR] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder Z] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AA] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AW] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BU] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BG] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AB] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BT] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AY] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AV] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BQ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AS] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BK] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AX] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BZ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BV] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AT] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AF] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AE] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BL] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AZ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BC] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BE] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BJ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BB] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Gavi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BX] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BF] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder Y] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BI] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder BS] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AQ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will [Placeholder AO] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 91.4% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 89 tracked outcomes and $20.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, is priced at 40.9%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice