Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 90.5% to 96.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
F1 Constructors' Champion: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see Mercedes as near-certain to win the 2026 F1 Constructors' Championship, with a 95.7% probability. The market resolves when the official results of the final scheduled race are known.
95.7%-0.2 pts 24h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Updated · Volume $28.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 95.7% | -0.2 |
| Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 2.6% | -0.1 |
| Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another team be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Mercedes is the strong favorite for the 2026 Constructors' Championship, while Ferrari is an outside chance and the remaining teams are negligible.
Context
Mercedes' probability sits at 95.7%. It has traded between 82.5% and 96.3% in recent weeks. This market resolves according to the winner of the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship. Once the official results of the final scheduled race are known, the market settles. If multiple teams tie, the F1 tiebreak procedure determines the champion. For any listed team that becomes mathematically eliminated during the season, its corresponding market resolves to 'No.'
The resolution date is tracked via Dec 6, 2026. A formal deadline applies: if the season is permanently canceled or not completed by the cutoff date specified in the rules, the market resolves to 'Other.' The resolution relies on official information from F1.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the winner of the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on official results from the final race. If the season is not completed, it may resolve to “Other.”
What happens if there is a tie in the championship?
The market resolves according to the official F1 tiebreak procedure used to determine the champion.
What happens to markets for teams that are mathematically out of contention?
If a team can no longer win the Constructors’ Championship based on F1 rules, its market resolves to “No.”
How is the outcome verified?
The resolution source is information from F1, including race results and championship standings.
Could the market resolve early if the champion is decided before the final race?
No, the market resolves only after the final scheduled race results are official, even if the champion is determined earlier.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice