Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.4% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Ben Pasternak Jailed: Market Probability
Markets price the chance that Ben Pasternak serves any time in a U.S. jail or prison before 2027 at 1.9%. The contract requires official confirmation—or a consensus of credible reporting—to settle as Yes.
1.9%-0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $50.7K
The 'Yes' outcome is priced as a remote tail, leaving 'No' as the overwhelming market expectation.
Context
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.2% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.6% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
The contract has traded in an extremely thin range, with the probability never straying far from zero. Liquidity mirrors the conviction: volume totals $50.7K. The market settles based on whether Ben Pasternak serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between the creation date and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is official information from the U.S. Government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also trigger settlement. Any time served must occur within the window; a sentence imposed but not served by the deadline would not suffice. For the price to shift upward, there would need to be a formal indication—either an official government record or a credible press consensus—that Pasternak is incarcerated. The resolution deadline of Dec 31, 2026 acts as the ultimate backstop; if no such event is confirmed by then, the contract closes at No. No other interim events are specified in the market's rules.
FAQ
What must happen for the market to resolve to Yes?
Ben Pasternak must serve time in a U.S. jail or prison between the market's creation and December 31, 2026. Only actual time served counts, not merely a sentence.
Who confirms whether the event has occurred?
The primary source is official U.S. Government information. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible media reporting can be used.
What happens if he is jailed after the deadline?
The market resolves to No. Any incarceration that begins after December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET does not count.
Does house arrest or a foreign prison count?
No. The rules specify federal, state, or local U.S. jails or prisons. No other form of confinement qualifies.
How long must the jail time be?
Any duration, no matter how brief, qualifies as long as it is served within the window.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice