Oct 16, 2026
Probability rose from 38.0% to 52.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
2026 Coin Launches: Top 100 Ranking Probability
Prediction markets price Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100 at 55.0%.
55.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?
Updated · Volume $93.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? | 55.0% | +0.5 |
| Over 6 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? | 33.5% | -5.5 |
| Over 8 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? | 31.5% | 0.0 |
| Over 10 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? | 13.0% | 0.0 |
| Over 12 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? | 8.5% | -0.5 |
Context
Oct 15, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 37.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 15, 2026
Probability rose from 37.0% to 41.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 14, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 39.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 13, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 42.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Oct 13, 2026
Probability fell from 48.0% to 37.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 12, 2026
Probability rose from 38.0% to 42.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 12, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 48.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 11, 2026
Probability rose from 21.5% to 39.0% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 11, 2026
Probability fell from 53.5% to 37.0% — a 16.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $93.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100, is priced at 55.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice