Major CEX Insolvent in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Markets see a a long shot chance—3.9%—that any of Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken will file for bankruptcy before Jan 1, 2027. and 0.0 pts in the last day.
Updated · Volume $134.6K
The 'Yes' outcome remains a long shot, while the alternative scenario—no such insolvency among the five exchanges—commands the dominant probability share.
Context
The forecast, with a 24-hour move of 0.0 pts. To settle Yes, the market requires official word—from the exchange itself, its lawyers, or a body of credible reports—that one of the five named platforms is insolvent or has filed for bankruptcy. Any other outcome, including silence or non-bankruptcy restructurings, resolves No. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027. The single formal trigger is a qualifying announcement before the cutoff. With Jan 1, 2027 as the hard deadline, any concrete filing would cause a sharp repricing, while an absence of news would likely see the number drift lower as time runs out.
FAQ
Which exchanges does this market cover?
Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, and Kraken.
What counts as insolvency?
Official information from the exchange or its representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting, stating the exchange is insolvent or filing for bankruptcy.
When does this market resolve?
It resolves at the end of 2026 if no qualifying event occurs earlier.
What if a covered exchange is acquired or restructured without bankruptcy?
Unless it triggers the insolvency or bankruptcy criteria, the market would not resolve Yes.
Who determines the outcome?
The market resolves based on official statements or credible reporting as described in the resolution rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice