Michael Saylor Federally Charged: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 6.5% chance that Michael Saylor faces federal charges by December 31, 2026, an outcome they rate as unlikely.
Updated · Volume $73.4K
The Yes outcome is an outside chance, with the No contract claiming nearly all the probability.
Context
The contract’s current price implies a 6.5% likelihood of a charge. The market resolves to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Michael Saylor anytime up to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. His status as chairman of MicroStrategy is irrelevant. The primary resolution source will be official information from US governmental sources, with a wide consensus of credible reporting serving as a backup. The deadline for a charge is Jan 1, 2027. Any development that alters the perceived likelihood of a federal case—such as news of an investigation—can nudge the price. Ultimately, only an official charge or a reporting consensus that confirms one will settle the contract.
FAQ
What triggers a 'Yes' resolution?
A formal charge or criminal indictment by the US federal government against Michael Saylor between the market’s creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Does it matter if Saylor is no longer chairman of MicroStrategy?
No. The resolution depends solely on whether he is charged, regardless of his corporate role.
What if the charge occurs after the deadline?
The market would resolve to 'No,' as only charges brought before the cutoff count.
How are the facts verified?
Official US government statements provide the primary source; if those are ambiguous, a broad consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice