Record Crypto Liquidation in 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a record crypto liquidation event in 2026 at 7.8%, implying traders view an all-time high in forced position closures as unlikely.
Updated · Volume $70.5K
The headline outcome dominates discussion, though markets consider it unlikely; all other possibilities are seen as negligible.
Context
The probability sits at 7.8%. Resolution & Rules: The market resolves to “Yes” if total crypto liquidations at any point in 2026 surpass the existing all-time record, according to CoinGlass’s “Top 10 Crypto Liquidation Events of All Time” list. If that record is not broken, it settles to “No.” Should CoinGlass data become permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome. What Moves the Number: The resolution date is Jan 1, 2027, with the market conditional on whether CoinGlass registers a new peak before the year ends. Any sharp moves in crypto prices that trigger cascading liquidations could shift expectations, but the formal trigger remains the recording of a new high in the CoinGlass data by the end of 2026.
FAQ
What qualifies as a record crypto liquidation?
The market settles as “Yes” if total crypto liquidations in a single event exceed the current all-time high figure, as tracked by CoinGlass’s list of the largest liquidation events.
Where does the liquidation data come from?
The primary source is CoinGlass’s “Top 10 Crypto Liquidation Events of All Time.” If that data becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used instead.
When will the market resolve?
The market checks whether a record occurred at any point in 2026. Resolution will take place once the year concludes and the data is confirmed.
What happens if CoinGlass is offline?
If CoinGlass data is permanently unavailable, the market will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine whether a new record was set.
Does the record refer to a single day’s liquidations?
Yes, the record is based on the total liquidations during a single event, as measured by CoinGlass’s liquidation tracking.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice