Oct 15, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 2.3% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
SBF Released from Custody in 2026: Market Odds
Prediction markets price the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by the end of 2026 at 2.3%, a figure that makes the outcome a long shot. The contract covers any release that ends state custody, including house arrest or parole, but excludes temporary transfers.
2.3%-0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $468.2K
The 'Yes' outcome is a long shot, while the market overwhelmingly favors SBF remaining in custody through 2026.
Context
Sep 26, 2026
Probability rose from 1.8% to 3.5% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 9.3% to 2.9% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 2.4% to 9.0% — a 6.7-point move over the past day.
The current price sits at 2.3% after trading between 1.3% and 9.3% over the observed period. The daily move stands at -0.1 pts,
The market resolves to Yes if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody before Jan 1, 2027. Any release that ends state custody qualifies, including house arrest, parole, or bond. Temporary outings—such as court appearances or hospital visits—while still under correctional supervision do not trigger a Yes. Transfers between facilities also do not count. The resolution depends on official government or corrections department information, or a consensus of credible reporting. The expiry at Jan 1, 2027 forms the key condition: any custody release before that moment resolves the market to Yes. The resolution source—official statements or widely accepted reporting—determines how quickly new information is priced.
FAQ
What kind of release counts for a Yes resolution?
Any release that ends state custody, including house arrest, parole, or bond, triggers a Yes. Temporary transfers for court or medical visits do not.
Does a transfer to another prison count as a release?
No. Moving SBF between facilities within the correctional system does not satisfy the condition.
How is the outcome verified?
The market uses official information from government or corrections agencies. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
When is the resolution deadline?
The market checks SBF’s custody status as of Jan 1, 2027.
What happens if SBF is released but rearrested before the deadline?
The market resolves to Yes if any release from custody occurs before the deadline, even if he is later reincarcerated.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice