Tom Lee Charged by December 31?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Tom Lee faces a US criminal charge by December 31, 2026, at 3.1%, an unlikely outcome. A single indictment from any federal or state jurisdiction—including DC and local subdivisions—would settle the market to Yes.
Updated · Volume $62.5K
The ‘Yes’ outcome trades at an outside chance, while the market’s structure heavily implies no charges will be filed by the deadline.
Context
The probability sits at 3.1%. It edged 0.0 pts over the last day. A Yes resolution requires a formal charge or announced criminal indictment from any US federal or state jurisdiction—including DC, counties, and municipalities—by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Without that, the market settles to No. The primary resolution source is official US government information, though a broad consensus of credible reporting can also determine the outcome. The probability can shift swiftly if a prosecutor files charges or holds a press conference, or if credible reports emerge that an indictment is imminent or has been blocked. As the Jan 1, 2027 deadline approaches, the odds will increasingly reflect the binary settle—Yes if an announcement materialises, No if the clock runs out without one.
FAQ
What qualifies as a formal charge under the market’s rules?
Any criminal indictment or equivalent charging document announced by a US federal or state prosecutor. The definition of a state includes the District of Columbia and any county, city, or other local government within a state.
Would a civil lawsuit or regulatory action trigger a Yes resolution?
No. Only a criminal charge or announced indictment counts. Civil complaints, administrative penalties, or investigations without charges do not settle the market.
What if charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline?
The market resolves on whether a formal charge was announced by the deadline. Subsequent dismissal does not change the outcome—once the condition is met, it remains Yes.
How does the market resolve if there is conflicting information?
The primary source is official information from US governmental bodies. If that is ambiguous, a wide consensus of credible media reporting can be used to determine whether a charge was announced.
Does a charge from a non-US jurisdiction count?
No. Only charges within US federal or state jurisdictions, broadly defined to include all local subdivisions, are considered.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice