Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 91.0% to 100.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Credible Public Sale: Markets See Overwhelming Confidence in Commitments
Prediction markets price a near-certain chance — 100.0% — that commitments in the Credible public raise on MetaDAO will surpass the headline figure, reflecting broad conviction even as the sale remains open.
0.1%
Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?
Updated · Volume $2.3M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $2M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $4M committed to the Credible public sale? | 100.0% | — |
| Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $65M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $90M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $85M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $80M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $50M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $100M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
| Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale? | 0.1% | — |
The headline threshold is seen as near-certain, and even the most ambitious targets are strongly favored, signaling almost no priced-in risk of shortfalls.
Context
The headline probability has held steady at 100.0%, near the top of its range, with. The line has been nearly unshakeable, hovering in territory that leaves little room for doubt. The market resolves Yes if the committed total shown on the official Credible sale page reaches the specified threshold at any point before the close, even if commitments are later withdrawn or refunded. Should the sale be on hold or the figure become unverifiable by the deadline, or if the raise is cancelled or rescheduled past that date, the market resolves No. Extended sale periods count toward resolution. Traders watch a single input: the committed amount on MetaDAO’s project page. The hard deadline Aug 31, 2026 is the only formal trigger. No other events or disclosures alter the settlement conditions.
FAQ
What exactly is the market predicting?
It predicts whether the official committed total on the Credible sale page will cross a particular threshold before the close.
Do later withdrawals or cancellations affect the outcome?
No. Once the committed figure hits the threshold at any point, the market resolves Yes regardless of subsequent refunds.
What happens if the raise is extended?
Any commitments during an extension count as long as they occur before the final closing time.
How does the market resolve if the sale is cancelled?
It resolves No if the raise is cancelled, put on hold with no verifiable total, or rescheduled beyond the deadline.
Where does the resolution data come from?
The committed figure on the official MetaDAO page for the Credible fundraise is the sole resolution source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice