Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act at 16.4%.

16.4%-0.1 pts 24h

Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

Updated · Volume $155.1K

3%20%36%53%Aug 22Aug 29Sep 6Sep 13Sep 21

Across platforms

2.4 pt spread

Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

  • Polymarket16.4%
  • Kalshi14.0%

Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.

OutcomeProbability24h
Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?16.4%-0.1
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?15.5%0.0
Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?12.4%0.0
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?11.5%0.0
Will Jacky Rosen vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?11.5%0.0
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?11.5%0.0
Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?10.5%0.0
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?10.3%-0.5
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?10.0%0.0
Will Ruben Gallego vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?8.1%-1.2
Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?8.0%0.0
Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?8.0%0.0
Will Andy Kim vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?5.9%+0.4
Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?4.0%0.0
Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?3.8%+0.3

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $155.1K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act, is priced at 16.4%.

Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice

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