Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act at 16.4%.
16.4%-0.1 pts 24h
Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
Updated · Volume $155.1K
Across platforms
2.4 pt spreadWill Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- Polymarket16.4%
- Kalshi14.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 16.4% | -0.1 |
| Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 15.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 12.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 11.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Jacky Rosen vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 11.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 11.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 10.3% | -0.5 |
| Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 10.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ruben Gallego vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 8.1% | -1.2 |
| Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Andy Kim vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 5.9% | +0.4 |
| Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | 3.8% | +0.3 |
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $155.1K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act, is priced at 16.4%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice