Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 82.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets assign a 83.5% chance to Anthropic flipping Bitcoin’s market capitalisation before the deadline, making the event strongly favored.
83.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $191.6K
The 'Yes' outcome is strongly favored, while the alternative is priced as a remote possibility.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 79.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 83.0% to 79.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 83.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 81.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 83.0% to 78.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 82.0% to 79.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 84.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 81.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has oscillated between 54.0% and 85.0% since the market opened. The current level sits at 83.5%. This market resolves to “Yes” if, at any moment before the deadline, Anthropic’s public valuation exceeds Bitcoin’s market cap. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Bitcoin’s cap is sourced from CoinGecko (or CoinMarketCap if CoinGecko becomes unavailable). For Anthropic, any valuation explicitly confirmed by the company or established through a consensus of credible reporting qualifies. The probability is bound to the formal resolution conditions. Any confirmed change in Anthropic’s valuation, shifts in Bitcoin’s market cap as reported by CoinGecko, and the approach of the Jan 1, 2027 deadline are the structural factors that define this market.
FAQ
How is Bitcoin’s market cap determined for this market?
It uses CoinGecko’s data for BTC market capitalisation, with CoinMarketCap as a fallback if CoinGecko stops providing relevant data.
What counts as a public valuation for Anthropic?
Any public valuation or private funding round figure that is explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or agreed upon by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the deadline of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, unless the flip condition occurs earlier.
Does the flip need to be sustained, or is a momentary crossover enough?
The market resolves to “Yes” if the condition is met at any single point between market creation and the deadline.
What happens if the valuation sources produce conflicting data?
For Bitcoin, the designated source (CoinGecko or fallback) is definitive. For Anthropic, a consensus of credible reporting is required if no official confirmation exists.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice