Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 23.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Will Bitcoin Outperform Gold in 2026? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Bitcoin beating gold at 27.0%, a substantial minority view. The estimate has traded between 13.5% and 28.5%.
27.0%+2.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $450.1K
Across platforms
3.2 pt spread- Polymarket27.0%
- Kalshi23.8%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
With the market pricing a Bitcoin win as a substantial minority view, gold holding the lead remains the prevailing expectation.
Context
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 21.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 17.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 16.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
The probability that Bitcoin will outperform gold currently sits at 27.0%. Over the tracked period, it has fluctuated between 13.5% and 28.5%. This market settles according to the relative percentage change of two assets for the full year 2026. If the gain in BTC/USDT (as quoted on Binance) exceeds that of XAU/USD (as quoted on OANDA), the market resolves to “Yes”. Otherwise, it resolves to “No”. A tie triggers a 50-50 split. The resolution source is TradingView; specifically, the value displayed at the top of the 12-month candle dated 01 Jan ’26 on the respective charts, once both data points are finalized. Formally, the probability reacts to any factor that alters the expected year-end performance gap. The resolution date—Jan 1, 2027—marks the final reckoning. Until then, every price move in Bitcoin or gold, every macroeconomic shift that tilts the outlook for digital versus traditional stores of value, can move the number. The sole arbiter is the TradingView data for the two instruments as described.
FAQ
What does the market predict?
It predicts whether Bitcoin’s percentage gain will exceed gold’s for the calendar year 2026.
How is the winner determined?
Using TradingView’s 12-month candle on January 1, 2026 for BTC/USDT and XAU/USD. The asset with the higher percentage change wins.
What happens if the returns are exactly equal?
The market resolves at 50-50, splitting the outcome equally between Yes and No.
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 trading year ends and the relevant TradingView data becomes available.
What data source is used?
TradingView charts: BTC/USDT from Binance and XAU/USD from OANDA.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice