Sep 26, 2026
Probability fell from 7.3% to 3.6% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Will China Unban Bitcoin by 2027? Market Odds
Markets price the chance of China lifting its Bitcoin ban by 2027 at 2.6%, a a long shot prospect. For a Yes resolution, Beijing must announce before Jan 1, 2027 that citizens can legally buy the cryptocurrency with yuan from within the country.
2.6%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $1.1M
Across platforms
19.4 pt spread- Polymarket2.6%
- Kalshi22.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
With the Yes outcome rated a long shot, the No side remains the overwhelming default.
Context
Sep 25, 2026
Probability rose from 2.5% to 7.3% — a 4.9-point move over the past day.
The probability has hovered around 2.6%. Data updated 11 min ago. A Yes requires the Chinese government to explicitly announce before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 that citizens may legally purchase Bitcoin using yuan from inside China. The actual implementation is irrelevant—only the announcement matters. The primary source is official PRC information, supplemented by credible reporting if necessary. Any signal from Beijing about cryptocurrency policy could shift the probability. The deadline of Jan 1, 2027 means the market will watch for draft regulations or statements from the People's Bank of China. Barring such an announcement, the contract resolves to No.
FAQ
What counts as a "Yes" resolution?
The Chinese government must announce that citizens can legally buy Bitcoin with yuan from inside China. Implementation is not required.
What if China eases restrictions but doesn't allow yuan purchases?
Unless the announcement explicitly permits buying with yuan, the market would likely resolve to No.
What is the resolution source?
Official PRC information, or a consensus of credible reporting if official sources are unclear.
When does the market resolve?
The deadline is 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. If no qualifying announcement has been made by then, it resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice