Sep 29, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 15.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
El Salvador Bitcoin Holdings: Will They Reach the Threshold?
Markets price the chance that El Salvador's bitcoin reserves will clear the threshold at 17.0%, a unlikely position. Resolution depends on data from a dedicated blockchain tracker.
17.0%+3.5 pts 24h
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $85.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? | 17.0% | +3.5 |
| Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by September 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario remains unlikely; all other potential paths are long shots.
Context
Sep 28, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 27, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 25.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 26, 2026
Probability rose from 15.0% to 21.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 25, 2026
Probability rose from 11.0% to 26.0% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 26.0% to 14.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 39.0% to 26.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 46.0% to 38.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 45.5% to 39.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 42.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has settled into a unlikely range. It has traded between 10.5% and 48.0% over the period. In the last day, it moved by +3.5 pts. This market resolves based on the ARKHAM INTEL tracker for El Salvador's official bitcoin holdings. The value must reach or surpass the stated threshold at any point before the market's deadline. Temporary glitches in the tracker do not count. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source may be used. Official government announcements confirming the target has been met will also trigger resolution. Formal triggers for a change in the market's assessment include the approach of the resolution deadline (Jan 1, 2027), any updates from the ARKHAM INTEL tracker, and official statements from the Salvadoran government regarding its bitcoin portfolio.
FAQ
What source determines the outcome?
The primary source is the ARKHAM INTEL tracker for El Salvador's government bitcoin address. If that becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source may be used.
Do temporary tracker errors affect resolution?
No. The market explicitly ignores temporary glitches or errors in the tracker.
Can an official announcement settle the market?
Yes. An official government confirmation that holdings have reached the required value will also qualify.
Does the value need to stay above the threshold for a certain period?
No. A single moment above the threshold by the deadline is sufficient, per the market rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice