Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 44.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
El Salvador Bitcoin Holdings: Will They Reach the Threshold?
Markets price the chance that El Salvador's bitcoin reserves will clear the threshold at 39.5%, a a substantial minority view position. Resolution depends on data from a dedicated blockchain tracker.
39.5%-4.0 pts 24h
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $84.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? | 39.5% | -4.0 |
| Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by September 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario remains a substantial minority view; all other potential paths are long shots.
Context
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 38.0% to 42.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 44.0% to 38.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 38.5% to 44.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 44.0% to 38.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 45.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 42.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 39.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 42.0% to 39.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 29.5% to 43.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has settled into a a substantial minority view range. It has traded between 9.0% and 47.5% over the period. In the last day, it moved by -4.0 pts. This market resolves based on the ARKHAM INTEL tracker for El Salvador's official bitcoin holdings. The value must reach or surpass the stated threshold at any point before the market's deadline. Temporary glitches in the tracker do not count. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source may be used. Official government announcements confirming the target has been met will also trigger resolution. Formal triggers for a change in the market's assessment include the approach of the resolution deadline (Jan 1, 2027), any updates from the ARKHAM INTEL tracker, and official statements from the Salvadoran government regarding its bitcoin portfolio.
FAQ
What source determines the outcome?
The primary source is the ARKHAM INTEL tracker for El Salvador's government bitcoin address. If that becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source may be used.
Do temporary tracker errors affect resolution?
No. The market explicitly ignores temporary glitches or errors in the tracker.
Can an official announcement settle the market?
Yes. An official government confirmation that holdings have reached the required value will also qualify.
Does the value need to stay above the threshold for a certain period?
No. A single moment above the threshold by the deadline is sufficient, per the market rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice