Oct 7, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 23.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Ethereum’s Next Milestone: Live Prediction Market Odds
The contest between Ethereum’s upper and lower price levels is a substantial minority view, with markets giving a 30.0% probability that the upper milestone is reached first. The clock runs until Jan 1, 2027.
30.0%-2.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $112.6K
The market focuses entirely on the race between the two price levels, with the possibility of a drawn outcome barely registering at current pricing.
Context
Oct 7, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 24.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 21.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 32.5% to 21.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 33.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 50.5% to 40.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
The probability of the upper level being hit first has traded between 10.5% and 32.5% during the life of this market and now stands at 30.0%. It shifted by -2.0 pts over the past day
The market settles in favor of the lower price level if Ethereum’s price on Binance dips to or below that level before crossing the higher one. It settles for the higher level if the opposite occurs. If neither level is reached by Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves at an even split. All prices are sourced from Binance’s ETH/USDT one-minute candles. As Ethereum’s spot price moves relative to the two thresholds, the odds of which one gets breached first adjust accordingly. The only fixed constraints are the Jan 1, 2027 deadline and the exclusive reliance on Binance data.
FAQ
What happens if Ethereum’s price touches both levels simultaneously?
The market rules do not explicitly cover a simultaneous breach. In practice, the resolution source would determine which level was crossed first based on Binance’s candle data.
Which exchange decides the final outcome?
The market uses Binance’s ETH/USDT pair, specifically the high and low of one-minute candles, as stated in the description.
Is there a possibility of a partial payout if neither level is reached?
Yes, if neither level is breached by Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves at an even split between the two outcomes.
Does the market consider prices from other exchanges?
No, only Binance ETH/USDT data is used for settlement.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice