Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 8.0% to 21.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Odds & Probability
The chance that HYPE flips Solana’s market capitalization before the deadline trades at 8.5%, according to 9 min ago data. Resolution hinges on CoinGecko’s market cap data.
8.5%+2.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $223.5K
The 'Yes' outcome stands at unlikely odds, with 'No' commanding the majority of the probability.
Context
The probability of a flip currently sits at 8.5% (9 min ago), unlikely territory. It has traded within a range of 5.5% to 17.0% over the monitored period. The market resolves to 'Yes' if, by the deadline of Jan 1, 2027, the market capitalization of HYPE exceeds that of Solana on CoinGecko at any point. If no such flip occurs before then, it resolves to 'No'. Should CoinGecko stop providing relevant data, CoinMarketCap will be used as the alternative source. Any price action that narrows or widens the gap between the two coins’ valuations can move the probability. The final deadline is Jan 1, 2027; data from CoinGecko (or CoinMarketCap) serves as the sole arbiter. No other external events are specified in the contract’s terms.
FAQ
What must happen for the market to resolve to 'Yes'?
HYPE’s market cap must surpass Solana’s at any point before the deadline, as seen on CoinGecko (or CoinMarketCap if CoinGecko fails).
Is there a specific time window for the flip?
The event must occur between market creation and the deadline (Jan 1, 2027).
What data source is used?
CoinGecko is the primary source. CoinMarketCap is the backup if CoinGecko stops showing relevant data.
Does a brief, intraday flip count?
Yes. As long as the condition is met at a single point in time according to the data source, it resolves positively.
What if the primary source shows contradictory information?
The market rules rely on the specified source; if that source is unavailable, the backup is used. Only one source is authoritative at a time.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice