Sep 29, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.3% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Will MicroStrategy Be Margin Called in 2026?
Markets price a margin call for MicroStrategy this year at 3.3%, which sits firmly in a long shot territory. The contract runs through Jan 1, 2027.
3.3%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $115.9K
The 'Yes' contract is a a long shot; the market sees a margin call as unlikely, with the overwhelming probability lying on the 'No' side.
Context
Sep 27, 2026
Probability fell from 14.7% to 4.5% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 26, 2026
Probability rose from 4.3% to 14.5% — a 10.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.6% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.6% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The price of a margin call has barely budged. Currently 3.3%, Over the period, it has traded between 2.5% and 8.8%. The contract resolves to 'Yes' if MicroStrategy is margin called on any Bitcoin-backed loan by the deadline, defined as a lender formally requiring additional collateral or a partial repayment because the loan-to-value ratio has fallen below the required level. Any forced liquidation, new collateral, or repayment made in response to the call counts. Voluntary bitcoin sales not directly prompted by a margin call are excluded. Settlement rests on SEC filings, official company statements, and consensus reporting. The only formal triggers are the contract’s expiry (Jan 1, 2027) and any action that meets the margin-call definition. Because the resolution relies on filings and official statements, the line only moves on verifiable developments—not on market chatter.
FAQ
What counts as a margin call for this market?
A margin call occurs when a lender formally demands that MicroStrategy provide additional collateral or repay part of a Bitcoin-backed loan because the collateral value has fallen below the required loan-to-value ratio. Voluntary sales do not qualify.
How will the market determine if a margin call happened?
Settlement will be based on SEC filings, official statements from MicroStrategy, and a consensus of credible financial reporting. If these sources confirm a margin call, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
What if MicroStrategy sells bitcoin without a margin call?
Voluntary bitcoin sales that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count toward a 'Yes' outcome. The market only considers forced actions or responses to a lender’s demand.
When does this market expire?
The market will resolve at the end of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any margin call before that deadline can trigger a 'Yes'.
What if there is a dispute over whether a margin call occurred?
Settlement will rely on the primary resolution sources—SEC filings, official statements, and credible financial reporting. A consensus among these sources will determine the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice