Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 44.5% to 38.8% — a 5.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Bitcoin holds $80,000, solana leads majors higher before Warsh's Jackson Hole debut — CoinDesk
Will Solana Hit the Lower or Higher Price First? Odds & Probability
The market currently gives a close to a coin flip probability, 40.7%, to the scenario where Solana touches one of the two thresholds before the other. The remaining time window stretches to Jan 1, 2027.
40.7%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $92.7K
The current market structure strongly favors one outcome, with the alternative resolution and the even-split fallback both trading at much lower probabilities.
Context
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 39.3% to 46.9% — a 7.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Bitcoin tops $80,000, solana jumps 8% but rally now runs into overbought warning — CoinDesk
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 66.3% to 44.6% — a 21.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 67.5% to 58.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 81.3% to 79.0% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 77.9% to 81.3% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 78.6% to 81.3% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 82.2% to 78.5% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
The headline probability now sits at 40.7%. Since the market launched, it has traded between 38.9% and 79.3%. Cumulative volume totals $92.7K. This market resolves to the lower price target if Solana dips to that level or below before it reaches the higher target. If, instead, the higher target is touched or exceeded first, the market settles to that price. Should neither threshold be breached by the deadline of Jan 1, 2027, the market settles at an even split. Resolution is based on Binance SOL/USDT high and low prices with one-minute candles selected. The most consequential formal condition is the deadline of Jan 1, 2027. Any price action within that window that brings Solana close to either threshold could shift the probability. The resolution source—Binance’s SOL/USDT high and low data with one-minute granularity—means that fleeting wicks count as much as sustained moves, so a sharp spike to either level would trigger settlement immediately.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts whether Solana will first hit the lower price target or the higher price target before the market's cutoff date. If neither is reached, the market resolves at an even split.
How is “first” determined?
The market uses Binance’s SOL/USDT high and low prices. If the price reaches or crosses the higher target on a given candle before it touches or breaches the lower target, the higher target wins, and vice versa.
What happens if the price spikes to both levels within the same minute?
The resolution depends on the exact sequence of trades, as reflected by the high and low of each one-minute candle. In practice, it is extremely rare for both thresholds to be breached in a single candle.
Is the even-split resolution a common outcome?
Historically, most markets of this type resolve to one of the price targets, but the even-split fallback ensures a fair settlement if neither is reached by the deadline.
Why is Binance the sole resolution source?
The market creator specified Binance to avoid disputes over pricing differences across exchanges. Only Binance’s data matters for settlement.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice