Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 6.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Will Stablecoins Hit Half a Trillion by 2027? Market Odds
Markets price the chance of stablecoins reaching the half-trillion mark at 6.0%. That makes the Yes outcome a long shot.
6.0%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $595.3K
The Yes outcome is a long shot, with the alternative scenario priced as the clear favorite.
Context
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has traded in a range over the timeframe shown. It currently sits at 6.0%. To resolve to Yes, DefiLlama’s total stablecoin market cap must equal or exceed half a trillion dollars on any day through Jan 1, 2027. A daily data point is considered final once the following day’s figure is published. If DefiLlama becomes permanently unavailable, the market will settle based on other credible public sources. The primary formal condition is whether the market cap hits the threshold by Jan 1, 2027. The sole resolution source is DefiLlama’s stablecoins chart, and no other data or events directly trigger a settlement.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a stablecoin in this market?
The market uses DefiLlama’s list of stablecoins on its Total Stablecoins page. Only tokens included by DefiLlama contribute to the total market cap.
How is the total market cap calculated?
DefiLlama aggregates the market capitalizations of all tracked stablecoins. The precise methodology is available on the DefiLlama website.
What happens if the threshold is hit but the data point is later revised?
The market uses DefiLlama’s published value at the time. A data point is considered final once the next day’s data is published; later revisions do not change the resolution.
What if DefiLlama goes offline permanently?
If the DefiLlama page becomes permanently unavailable, the market resolves based on other credible and publicly verifiable sources, as stated in the market rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice