1 Megaton Meteor Strike in 2026? Probability
The market prices the chance of a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 at 1.5%, making it effectively ruled out. To resolve 'Yes,' a natural bolide must explode in the atmosphere with at least 1,000 kilotons of TNT equivalent.
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The 'Yes' outcome is effectively ruled out, while 'No' overwhelmingly dominates the market.
Context
The probability currently stands at 1.5%.. The line has been consistently near zero, with any fluctuations barely registering on the chart. The market resolves 'Yes' if a natural meteoroid’s atmospheric explosion releases at least 1 megaton of TNT-equivalent energy between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as recorded in the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository. If that dataset is not updated by February 28, 2027, or becomes permanently unavailable, resolution may be based on a consensus of other credible sources, including the European Space Agency or the International Asteroid Warning Network. The key dates are the end of the observation period on December 31, 2026, and the data update deadline of February 28, 2027. Any official release from the NASA JPL repository—or from the alternative sources if invoked—indicating a qualifying bolide would almost certainly move the probability. The market will trade until the final resolution data is released by Mar 1, 2027.
FAQ
What qualifies as a meteor strike in this market?
A natural meteoroid (bolide) that explodes in Earth’s atmosphere with a total impact energy of at least 1 megaton (1,000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent. Artificial objects or re-entry vehicles are excluded.
How is the impact energy verified?
The primary source is the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, specifically the 'Impact Energy (kt)' column. If that dataset is not updated in time or becomes unavailable, other credible sources such as ESA or IAU may be used.
When does the market resolve?
Resolution occurs after the official data for the entire 2026 year is available, which is expected by February 28, 2027. The exact timing depends on the NASA database update.
Does the meteor need to hit the ground to qualify?
No. The market is based on atmospheric explosion energy, not surface impact. Even if a meteor reaches the ground, the relevant measure is the energy recorded during its atmospheric entry.
What happens if the NASA dataset is not updated?
If the primary source is not updated by February 28, 2027, or becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on a consensus of other credible sources, such as the European Space Agency or the International Asteroid Warning Network.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice