Presidential Election Winner 2028: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election at 24.1%.
24.1%-0.6 pts 24h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Updated · Volume $704.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 24.1% | -0.6 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 13.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 11.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 8.8% | -0.1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 7.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 3.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 3.5% | +0.2 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 2.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 2.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.6% | +0.1 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.8% | -0.1 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.7% | +0.0 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another person win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 70.1% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 53 tracked outcomes and $704.0M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election, is priced at 24.1%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice