Presidential Election Winner 2028: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election at 20.0%.
20.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Updated · Volume $658.8M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 20.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 13.9% | -0.2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 11.8% | +0.1 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 7.8% | +0.3 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 7.4% | +0.2 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 5.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 2.8% | -0.1 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 2.3% | -0.2 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.8% | — |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.6% | — |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.6% | — |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.9% | — |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.8% | — |
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.4% | — |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.3% | — |
| Will another person win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 60.9% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 38 tracked outcomes and $658.8M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election, is priced at 20.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice