Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 19.8%.
19.8%-0.1 pts 24h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Updated · Volume $1.2B
Across platforms
0.3 pt spreadWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Polymarket19.8%
- Kalshi20.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 19.8% | -0.1 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 14.4% | -0.2 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 12.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 7.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 5.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 5.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 2.0% | — |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1.9% | — |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1.3% | — |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1.1% | — |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.9% | — |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.6% | — |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.5% | — |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.5% | — |
| Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.4% | — |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.4% | — |
| Will another person win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.0% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 58.5% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 46 tracked outcomes and $1.2B in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, is priced at 19.8%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice