Brazil Presidential Election: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election at 61.5%.
61.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Updated · Volume $112.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 61.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 23.8% | -0.8 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 10.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1.7% | +0.4 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.9% | -0.5 |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.5% | -0.6 |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.3% | — |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will another person win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 98.5% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 18 tracked outcomes and $112.9M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, is priced at 61.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice