Brazil Presidential Election: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election at 55.5%.
55.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Updated · Volume $140.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 55.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 41.4% | +1.3 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1.6% | -0.8 |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another person win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 20 tracked outcomes and $140.0M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, is priced at 55.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice