10.0+ Earthquake Before 2027: Odds & Probability
Markets assign a 2.3% probability to a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake occurring anywhere on Earth before the end of 2026. The contract resolves based on United States Geological Survey data, with a specified observation window and a 24-hour period for post‑event magnitude revisions.
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The “Yes” outcome is considered a long shot by traders.
Context
Traders have priced this event at 2.3% recently. A “Yes” resolution requires the United States Geological Survey to record one or more earthquakes of magnitude 10.0 or above between December 8, 2025, 12:00 PM Eastern Time and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The relevant registry is the USGS Significant Earthquakes database (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If a qualifying earthquake does not appear on that source by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, another credible source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, the market remains open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude; it then resolves according to the latest data available at the close of that window. Any seismic event approaching the magnitude threshold, or the accumulation of time without one, shifts the odds. The formal condition is the appearance—or absence—of a 10.0+ earthquake in the USGS catalogue before the deadline. The official end date is Dec 31, 2026, after which the resolution will be determined based on available USGS data. The contract settles under the rules described above, including the backup source provision and the 24‑hour revision window.
FAQ
What exactly needs to happen for a “Yes” resolution?
The market resolves to “Yes” if the United States Geological Survey records one or more earthquakes of magnitude 10.0 or above between December 8, 2025, 12:00 PM Eastern Time, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
Which USGS data source is used?
The resolution source is the USGS Significant Earthquakes database, specifically the list at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef.
What if a qualifying earthquake isn’t immediately in the database?
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred but isn’t yet listed, the market may remain open until January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. If still unlisted by that date, another credible source will be used.
Can a magnitude revision after the fact change the outcome?
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, the market stays open for 24 hours to allow for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. It then resolves according to the latest data available at the end of that window.
Is there a minimum number of earthquakes required?
No, a single earthquake with magnitude 10.0 or higher is sufficient. The location is irrelevant—anywhere on Earth counts.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice