10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a magnitude 10.0+ earthquake before 2027 at 1.4%, placing the scenario in effectively ruled out territory. The window closes at the end of 2026, but potential reporting delays could push final resolution into January 2027.
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The “Yes” outcome is the sole focus, with all other possibilities grouped as long shots.
Context
The market’s assessment of a 10.0+ quake currently stands at 1.4%. Data as of 4 min ago. The market resolves to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes of magnitude 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The magnitude must be confirmed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program. If a qualifying earthquake occurs within the timeframe but has not yet appeared in the USGS data, the market may remain open until January 31, 2027 to allow for reporting. Once a qualifying earthquake is registered, the market stays open for 24 hours to account for any magnitude revisions, then resolves on the latest available data. If no such earthquake meets the criteria, the market resolves to “No”. The probability is sensitive to time: as the window narrows without event, the odds decline. The formal resolution window ends on Jan 1, 2027, but reporting lags could extend the effective deadline. The sole arbiter is the USGS; any revision during the 24-hour hold after a quake is registered directly affects the outcome. No other events or announcements are relevant.
FAQ
What qualifies as a 10.0 or above earthquake?
Any earthquake with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher, as recorded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, during the specified timeframe.
How is the magnitude determined?
The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program serves as the sole resolution source. Its reported magnitude is final, subject to any revisions within the 24-hour post-registration window.
What happens if a large quake occurs but isn’t immediately listed by USGS?
The market can stay open until January 31, 2027 to give USGS time to publish data. If the quake still hasn’t appeared by then, another credible source may be used.
Does a magnitude revision after the event change the outcome?
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, the market remains open for 24 hours. If USGS revises the magnitude within that window, the market resolves based on the latest figure.
What if no magnitude 10.0+ earthquake occurs?
If the USGS reports no qualifying earthquakes by the time the market closes (including any extension for delayed data), the market resolves to “No”.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice