Jul 20, 2026
Resolved: Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — NO. A week before, markets priced it at 18%.
World Cup Winner: Result & Final Odds
The prediction market on the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner settled with Spain as the prevailing outcome. Markets priced Spain at a near-certain 100.0% at close.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World CupResolved — markets priced this at 100% a week before
Updated · Volume $4.3B
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Team AK win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Team AN win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Any Other Team win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Team AG win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Team AI win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Team AH win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Team AJ win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Team AM win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Team AL win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Team AO win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
Spain was the prevailing outcome, settling at a near-certain price, while the other 11 teams resolved to ‘No’.
Context
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 59.1% to 61.6% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Spain’s contract settled at 100.0%, reaching a near-certain level. A week before resolution, the market had priced the same outcome at 100.0%. The market resolved according to the national team that won the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Resolution relied on official FIFA information or a consensus of credible reporting. Contracts for teams that were eliminated resolved to ‘No’ as soon as they could no longer win. Had the tournament been permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, the market would have resolved to ‘Other’. The market settled on Jul 20, 2026. Total trading volume was $4.3B.
FAQ
How did the market determine the winner?
The market resolved based on the national team that won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, using official FIFA information or a consensus of credible reporting.
What would have happened if the World Cup was canceled?
If the tournament was permanently canceled or not finished by October 13, 2026, the market would have resolved to ‘Other’.
How were the other teams’ contracts resolved?
All contracts for teams other than Spain resolved to ‘No’, as those teams did not win the World Cup.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice