Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 92.5% to 96.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
July 2026 Hottest on Record: Odds & Outlook
Prediction markets have settled Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on recordEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $181.1K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | 100.0% | — |
| Will July 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? | 0.0% | — |
| Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | 0.0% | — |
| Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 87.5% to 96.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 87.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 74.5% to 81.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 74.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: July set to be driest on record for England and Wales after relentless heatwaves — The Guardian
Show earlier updates
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 68.5% to 79.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: July set to be driest on record for England and Wales after relentless heatwaves — The Guardian
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 67.0% to 79.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 57.0% to 66.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 64.0% to 56.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 86.5% to 64.0% — a 22.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice