Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 4.4% to 14.3% — a 9.9-point move over the past day.
9.0+ Earthquake Before 2027: Odds & Probability
At 15 min ago, the chance of a magnitude 9.0 or higher earthquake before 2027 stands at 3.0%, which markets view as a long shot. The question hinges on whether the USGS records such a temblor before the deadline.
3.0%-0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $329.5K
The Yes outcome—a 9.0+ earthquake occurring before 2027—is seen as a long shot, with the alternative (No) accounting for the bulk of the probability.
Context
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 6.5% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
The headline probability has ranged between 2.5% and 8.1% over the life of the market. The current 3.0% reading implies an a long shot expectation. Resolution depends on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) confirming a quake of magnitude 9.0 or above between December 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Should a sizable event occur near the end of that window, the market could stay open until January 31, 2027 to allow for it to appear in the USGS catalog. Once a qualifying earthquake is registered, the market remains open an additional 24 hours to capture any magnitude revisions, then settles on the updated number. The formal deadline is Feb 1, 2027; any USGS-confirmed 9.0+ quake before then would resolve the market to Yes. The sole resolution source is the USGS, and each new seismic bulletin or the approach of the deadline can shift traders' assessments.
FAQ
What constitutes a qualifying earthquake?
A magnitude 9.0 or higher earthquake, as confirmed by the USGS, anywhere on Earth within the market's timeframe.
What is the exact timeframe for this market?
From December 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET to December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
What happens if an earthquake near the cutoff requires more time to verify?
The market may remain open until January 31, 2027, to allow the USGS to list the event and for potential magnitude revisions.
What if the USGS revises the magnitude of a qualifying earthquake?
After a 24-hour wait period following the quake's first registration, the market resolves based on the latest USGS data, which may reflect a revised magnitude.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice