ACA Credits Extended & House Winner 2026?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026 at 89.0%.

89.0%+1.0 pts 24h

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

Updated · Volume $405.0K

79%83%88%93%Aug 1Aug 8Aug 16Aug 23Aug 31
OutcomeProbability24h
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?89.0%+1.0
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?12.0%0.0
Will ACA premium tax credits be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will ACA premium tax credits be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will something else occur?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $405.0K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026, is priced at 89.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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