Sep 23, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 74.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Alaska Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 at 73.5%.
73.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 73.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 25.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.9% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 22, 2026
Probability rose from 73.5% to 81.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 57.0% to 61.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 56.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 8 tracked outcomes and $1.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026, is priced at 73.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice