Alaska Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 at 58.0%.
58.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $363.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 58.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 37.5% | -5.0 |
| Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 95.6% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 6 tracked outcomes and $363.0K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026, is priced at 58.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice