Oct 16, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 48.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Argentina Presidential Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election at 47.5%.
47.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Updated · Volume $952.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 47.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 29.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 14.7% | -4.4 |
| Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 2.0% | -0.2 |
| Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 1.1% | +0.2 |
| Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 1.1% | -0.4 |
| Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| Will Guillermo Moreno win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Máximo Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.3% | +0.1 |
| Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.2% | -0.1 |
| Will Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Daniel Hadad win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Nicolás del Caño win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Karina Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Alberto Fernández win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 95.1% of the total probability.
Context
Oct 16, 2026
Probability fell from 55.5% to 35.5% — a 20.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 47.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 21 tracked outcomes and $952.0K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election, is priced at 47.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice