Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 47.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Argentina Presidential Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election at 50.5%.
50.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Updated · Volume $586.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 50.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 41.5% | +2.5 |
| Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 7.0% | +0.2 |
| Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 1.3% | +0.0 |
| Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 1.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.4% | +0.1 |
| Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 98.2% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 12 tracked outcomes and $586.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election, is priced at 50.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice