Argentina Presidential Election Winner: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election at 49.5%.

49.5%-2.0 pts 24h

Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Updated · Volume $276.4K

43%48%53%59%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?49.5%-2.0
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?42.5%+4.5
Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?2.4%-0.5
Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?2.1%+0.6
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?1.8%-0.6
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?1.4%-0.1
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?0.8%+0.0
Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?0.4%
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?0.4%+0.1
Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?0.3%
Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?0.3%
Will someone else win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?0.0%

The top 5 outcomes account for 98.3% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 12 tracked outcomes and $276.4K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election, is priced at 49.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice