Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 91.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price Jay Feely's chances of winning the Republican nomination for Arizona's 1st congressional district at 100.0%.
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $497.1K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Kaitlin Purrington be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Muchelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another candidate be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.0% | — |
Jay Feely is the near-certain favorite, with all other candidates priced as marginal long shots.
Context
Jay Feely is priced as near-certain to win the Republican nomination in Arizona's 1st congressional district, with his probability at 100.0%.. The rest of the field consists of minor candidates, none of whom have gained traction against the frontrunner. The market resolves to the winner of the GOP primary on Jul 21, 2026, as determined by official Republican sources including the RNC. If no nominee is announced by the market's settlement deadline, the contract settles to 'Other.' A replacement of the nominee after the primary does not affect the resolution.
FAQ
When does the Arizona primary take place?
The Republican primary is scheduled for Jul 21, 2026.
How does the market determine the winner?
It resolves to the candidate who officially secures the Republican nomination for AZ-01, based on consensus from official Republican sources such as the RNC.
What if the nominee drops out before the general election?
A replacement nominee does not change the market's resolution—it settles on the original primary winner.
What happens if no nominee is decided?
The market resolves to 'Other' if no Republican nominee is announced by the platform's cutoff date.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice