Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 68.5% to 85.0% — a 16.5-point move over the past day.
Bachelorette Season 22 Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price Doug Mason’s chance of receiving the final rose at 88.5%, a strongly favored bet.
88.5%-3.5 pts 24h
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?
Updated · Volume $2.5M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 88.5% | -3.5 |
| Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 3.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Casey Hux win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Michael Baba win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Johnnie LaRossa win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.7% | +0.1 |
| Will Matt Carroll win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.7% | +0.0 |
| Will Kevin Montero win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.6% | +0.1 |
| Will Clayton Johnson win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.5% | +0.0 |
| Will Josh Harward win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Malik Evans win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Rod Strozier win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Ronn Perez win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Marcus Richardson win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Christopher Wood win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Aaron Kahng win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Mike Turitto win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Lew Evans win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Brandon Perce win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Conrad Ukropina win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Brad Ledford win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Trenten Merrill win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant B win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant C win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant F win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant N win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant J win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant O win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant T win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant V win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant D win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant M win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant X win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant Z win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant U win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant E win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant I win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant G win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant R win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant W win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant P win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant H win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant Q win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant Y win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant S win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant A win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant K win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Contestant L win The Bachelorette Season 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Doug Mason is the market’s frontrunner, though the combined field of other contestants still holds a substantial minority chance.
Context
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 74.0% to 63.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 79.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 69.0% to 81.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 76.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 74.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 78.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 75.0% to 81.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 82.0% to 75.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 71.5% to 82.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
The price has fluctuated over the trading period. It has touched a low of 67.0% and a high of 92.5%. Over the past day, the odds shifted by -3.5 pts. This market resolves to the contestant who gets the final rose during the Season 22 finale. Any relationship developments after that ceremony — including the “After the Final Rose” segment — are ignored. If no rose is given, or the finale does not air by November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other.” The official source is the finale episode itself. What could move the number? Any development that alters perceptions of Doug Mason’s chances relative to the field — spoilers, episode previews, or social media buzz — ahead of the finale. The resolution deadline Dec 1, 2026 and the final broadcast date create natural pressure points.
FAQ
What is the resolution source?
The Season 22 finale episode of The Bachelorette, specifically the final rose ceremony.
What happens if no final rose is given?
The market resolves to “Other,” meaning no contestant is declared the winner.
When must the finale air to resolve normally?
The episode must be publicly available by November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise the contract settles as “Other.”
Does the “After the Final Rose” special affect the outcome?
No. Any break-up or change after the final rose ceremony is not considered; only the moment the rose is accepted determines the winner.
What if the Bachelorette rejects everyone?
If no contestant receives a final rose, the market resolves to “Other.”
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice