2026 Midterms: Control of Congress Odds

Prediction markets price 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House at 50.5%.

50.5%+1.0 pts 24h

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Updated · Volume $10.8M

43%46%49%53%Aug 1Aug 8Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30
OutcomeProbability24h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House50.5%+1.0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House35.5%+1.0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House11.5%0.0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House0.9%0.0
2026 Balance of Power: Other0.3%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $10.8M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House, is priced at 50.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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