Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 44.5% to 67.1% — a 22.6-point move over the past day.
Bitcoin Best Month in 2026: Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 at 77.3%.
77.3%+0.4 pts 24h
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
Updated · Volume $824.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 77.3% | +0.4 |
| Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 6.5% | -1.0 |
| Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 5.6% | +0.2 |
| Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 5.0% | 0.0 |
| Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.4% | -0.3 |
| Will January be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will March be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will May be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will February be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.6% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 26.6% to 46.5% — a 20.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 1.1% to 37.4% — a 36.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Bitcoin nears key technical breakout that could propel prices to $76,000 — CoinDesk
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 44.5% to 38.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Bitcoin nears key technical breakout that could propel prices to $76,000 — CoinDesk
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 47.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 42.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 20.0% to 34.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 27.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 27.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 27.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 12 tracked outcomes and $824.7K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026, is priced at 77.3%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice