Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Will Pump.fun Airdrop by 2026? Live Probability
Prediction markets assign a 15.5% probability to Pump.fun performing an airdrop by 31 December 2026, a level described as unlikely. The estimate was last updated 8 min ago.
15.5%-1.5 pts 24h
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
Updated · Volume $2.8M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 | 15.5% | -1.5 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by September 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 18? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The scenario where Pump.fun performs an airdrop by 31 December 2026 dominates the commentary, while the remaining outcomes such as different cutoff dates are all long shots.
Context
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 22.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 22.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 15.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 12.0% to 21.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 13.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
The probability currently stands at 15.5%. Over the tracked period, it has swung between 10.5% and 22.0%. The market asks whether Pump.fun will complete an airdrop by 31 December 2026. It settles according to the official market terms, which specify what constitutes an airdrop for settlement purposes. If an airdrop is publicly confirmed before that date, the market resolves positively; if the date passes without one, it resolves negatively. The main factor that could move the number is the passage of time toward the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. Any official confirmation of an airdrop or expiry of the deadline without one would lead to resolution.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts the likelihood that Pump.fun conducts an airdrop by 31 December 2026.
How does the market settle?
Settlement is based on whether an airdrop occurs by the deadline, as defined in the market's published rules.
What if the airdrop happens after 31 December 2026?
The market would resolve as 'No', because the condition requires the airdrop to occur on or before that date.
Does this market cover who receives the airdrop?
No, this market focuses solely on whether an airdrop takes place by the cutoff; other markets or outcomes may address recipients.
Where can I view the full settlement criteria?
The complete terms are listed on the prediction market platform hosting this event.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice