Oct 5, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026 at 69.0%.
69.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
Updated · Volume $945.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | 69.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | 17.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
The top 3 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Oct 4, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 58.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 58.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $945.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026, is priced at 69.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice